016
FXAK69 PAFG 161419
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
619 AM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-GUSTY WINDS, AND FALLING SNOW, COULD ACT TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS COULD BLOW FALLING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
*ACCUMULATIONS UNLIKELY IN AREAS OF LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SNOW TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES BY SUNDAY.
-TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
*THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN CENTRAL INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG LIKELY IN THE WEST COAST.
-WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE WEAKER GUSTS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
-TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL AVERAGE IN HIGH 20S AND
LOW 30S THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN MID TO UPPER
20S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 4PM FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
BLOWING SNOW.
*VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO 1/2 OF A MILE
*LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
-NORTHEASTERLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WEAKENING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
*GUSTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL PEAK AT 50 MPH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
-LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY SEE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT FROM A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE NORTH SLOPE. UNDERNEATH THIS FRONT
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE INTERIOR AND
EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE WEAKEN TODAY QUICKLY REDUCING THE CHANCES
FOR BLOWING SNOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE BRINGING MORE SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR. BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP 5 TO 15 DEGREES AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
WEAK LOW ENTERS THE SOUTHERN BERING POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY MORNING WILL START A LOW ORIENTED IN THE WESTERN GULF. AS
THE STORM TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF, IT WILL SEND A
WARM FRONT THROUGH ALASKA, WARMING THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND PROVIDING THE MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL
THROUGHOUT MOST OF ALASKA. WITHIN THE INTERIOR, ALONG WITH
SNOW, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
THE INVERSIONS WILL REMAIN STRONG DUE TO THE PRESENCES OF NO
SOLAR HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND GUSTS COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THAT LAST UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING, ONCE THE LOW REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THIS POINT
THE LOW IN THE GULF BEGINS TO WEAKEN, WITH THE WINDS IN THE
INTERIOR DISSIPATING FIRST. HOWEVER ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
NORTH SLOPE, WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC LOW
IN THE HIGH ARCTIC, WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPE, WHILE A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
SIBERIA AND THE LOW IN THE GULF, KEEP THE WEST COAST GUSTY AS
WELL. DURING THIS TIME THE NORTH ARCTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW, PERIODS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST COULD SEE FREEZING
DRIZZLE DUE TO LOW STRATUS PRECIPITATING SUPERCOOLED LIQUID THAT
FREEZES ON CONTACT.
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THIS STORM PROGRESSES, AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL ORIENT ITSELF OVER THE WEST COAST AND BEGIN TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO
CAPTURE THE EXACT AMOUNT OF SNOW THIS FRONT CAN BRING, THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY FOR IT TO BRING A HEAVIER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT TRACKS TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF IT
WILL BE THE REMNANT MOISTURE LEFT OVER BY THE DECAYING GULF LOW.
ALONG WITH MOISTURE, THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
COULD MORE EASILY SATURATED THE DGZ (DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE),
ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HIGH RATIO SNOW TO DEVELOP. THE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THIS TIME ARE
EXPECTED TO ON AVERAGE STAY BELOW FREEZING. THIS WOULD INDICATE
THAT IF THE DGZ WERE TO BE FULLY SATURATED, AND PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR, THAT IT WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW RATHER THEN A
WINTRY MIX. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD BE DIRECTLY AFTER MOST OF THE WIND
GUSTS WITHIN THE INTERIOR SUBSIDED. THE LIGHTER WINDS SPEEDS,
WOULD SUPPORT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE HIGH RATIO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT IN THE DGZ, WHICH IN TURN WOULD INDICATE LARGER
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. IF THIS PATTERNS
PROVES TO BE CORRECT THIS COULD RESULT IN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOWFALL WITHIN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
HOWEVER, ALTHOUGH ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE, THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE INTERIOR DURING THE TIME THIS FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT THROUGHOUT SATURDAY THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR'S SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT IF 3 INCHES OF SNOW DID FALL
WITH THIS FRONT, THAT MOST OF IT WILL MELT, LEADING TO LOWER
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS COLD FRONT, THE COOLER ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
INTERIOR. THIS IN TURN, WILL CREATE A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND SLIGHTLY CLEARER SKIES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF ALASKA WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN HIGH 20S AND LOW 30S FOR
MOST AREAS, AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS WE BEGIN THE WORK WEEK A LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY.
THIS LOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BRING MANY IMPACTS AS THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN PLACES THE SURFACE LOW AROUND 995 MB. AS THE LOW WEAKENS ON
TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WRAP UP ON ITSELF IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
THE ENERGY FROM THE DECAYING LOW ALLOWING FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RAPID DEVELOPMENT
AND THE TRACK IS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IT WILL STALL AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MOUNTAINS, AND SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE INTERIOR.
THIS FRONT IS WHERE MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE. COLD AIR ENTRENCHED IN
THE INTERIOR FROM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND COULD
INHIBIT HOW FAR INTO THE INTERIOR THE WARM FRONT MAKES. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE FRONT INEVITABLY STALLS WILL DETERMINE WHO IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR GETS THE MOST SNOW. AS OF NOW THE CORRIDOR TO
WATCH IS FROM MCGRATH TO FORT YUKON. THERE IS NOW A LOT OF CHINOOK
FLOW, SO FAIRBANKS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THIS
CORRIDOR OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD EASILY SHIFT WEST OR EAST
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MODELS DEAL WITH THE COLD AIR. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS STORM.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ804-805.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ801-
815-854-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ802-
806-853-856-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ804-
814-816-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM AKDT
THIS EVENING FOR PKZ805-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ811-
850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ812-
857-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ813-
859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ813.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ814-
860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ814-815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ815-
861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ855.
SFD/SDD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page