053
FXAK69 PAFG 162247
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
*ACCUMULATION TOTALS LIGHT IN AREAS OF LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SNOW TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES BY
SUNDAY.
-HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SATURDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
*THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN CENTRAL INTERIOR.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
-RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG LIKELY IN THE WEST COAST.
-WIND GUSTS WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
WHILE WEAKER GUSTS ALONG THE WEST COAST PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
-TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL AVERAGE IN HIGH 20S AND
LOW 30S THROUGH SUNDAY, WHILE THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL TREND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN MID TO UPPER
20S.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
-A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 4PM FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
BLOWING SNOW.
*VISIBILITY COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1/2 A STATUTE MILE.
-NORTHEASTERLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL
PERSIST TAPER-OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
-LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NORTH
SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, WITH TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY SEE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.
.SYNOPSIS..THE WESTERN COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
RECEIVE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE IT IS EXPECTED
TO STAY BREEZY FOR THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER-SIDE(UP TO 1-3
INCHED IN TOTAL LOOK TO OCCUR MAINLY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL &
WESTERN INTERIOR & THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FROM TROFING OVER
THAT AREA. FOR THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE & THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE, THAT TROFING ALSO LOOKS TO BRING SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE & GUSTY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE PRIMARILY
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
VISIBILITY-REDUCING(AS LOW AS 1/2 SM) BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THAT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RATHER GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE WEST
COAST & THE ARCTIC COAST STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT & LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST &
NORTHWEST(AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST & BERING SEA LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST) APPROACHES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE STATE, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THAT RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FOR THIS WEEKEND & KEEP THEM THAT WAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A SFC LOW LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA TODAY WILL GENERALLY DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING. IT HAS SENT SHORTWAVE
TROFS OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND IT. ONE IS SITUATED
STRETCHED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN & CENTRAL INTERIOR & THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, TODAY. IT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR SOME INCREASED CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR THAT AREA
INTO SATURDAY. THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, THE WEST
COAST, & FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE FAIRBANKS AREA
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS AROUND THE INTERIOR
THAT HAVE REACHED ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THE BLOWING SNOW
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST CAUSED BY THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH & LOWER PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH & THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING IS
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXING CAUSING THE WINDS TO DECREASE. THEREFORE, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS BEING ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM
HIGHER PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST. AS WE APPROACH THE LATER
PARTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR ON AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 TO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD THAT WAS TALKED ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE AROUND NORMAL/SEASONABLE VALUES OVER
OUR ENTIRE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD & APPROACH MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT
THE APPROACHING BERING SEA LOW CENTER WILL MISS OUR REGION TO THE
SOUTH, MOVING EASTWARD MORE TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY / ALASKA
PENINSULA AREA & THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS CONTINUES THE
GENERAL CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE, A SE
TO NW MOVING WARM FRONT & SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT LOW
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF, BRINGING BREEZIER/GUSTIER CONDITIONS &
SOME SNOW TO THE ALASKA RANGE, THE INTERIOR AREA, & THE WEST COAST.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THAT WHEN THIS LOW ENTERS THE NORTHERN
GULF, IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER & HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WHICH MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL TO THE ALASKA RANGE & HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO OVERRIDE THE SHADOWING/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS
FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO EVEN BRING THE INTERIOR AREAS SOME
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL, PERHAPS THE MOST SNOW WE HAVE SEEN, SO FAR,
THIS SEASON. ASIDE FROM THE WEST COAST, TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
& LASTING AT LEAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS IS INDICATED BY 850MB MODEL
FORECAST TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOUT 5 DEGREES CELSIUS COLDER THAN
THE CURRENT VALUES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...NO COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ804-805.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ801-
814-815-854-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ802-
805-806-813-852-853-856-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PKZ811-
850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ813-
814-859-860.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ814.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR PKZ815-
861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR
PKZ815-860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM AKDT
SATURDAY FOR PKZ855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TO 6 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR PKZ860.
KEY MESSAGES...CHAMBERS
SYNOPSIS...CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...CHAMBERS
LONG TERM...CHAMBERS
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...CHAMBERS
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