351  
FXAK67 PAJK 151409  
AFDAJK  
 
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK  
509 AM AKST FRI NOV 15 2024  
   
SHORT TERM  
A FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING IS  
BRINGING WITH IT WINDY CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND FOR A FEW LOCATIONS  
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS  
OVERNIGHT HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES SURGE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  
CONSEQUENTLY, IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKE THAT THE ICY STRAIT  
CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN LARGELY SNOW FREE - ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX  
IS POSSIBLE IN JUNEAU THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IF RATES PROVE  
HEAVY ENOUGH. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY  
RELEGATED TO THE HIGHWAYS AND AREAS AT ELEVATION. A WINTER STORM  
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, AND A WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HAINES HIGHWAY.  
 
ASIDE FROM THE SNOW, ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SPREADING IN  
FROM W TO E AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. QPF  
TOTALS WILL BE LARGELY BETWEEN 0.5 TO 2 INCHES, AND SO NO  
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE IN STORE  
FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE REPLACED BY  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY, ALONGSIDE A CORRESPONDING  
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE GULF AND THE OUTER GULF COAST.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE DRIVEN BY COLD AIR ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND  
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM'S PARENT LOW - WHICH  
WILL BE MEANDERING AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF.  
 
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST - PRIMARILY  
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND DECREASING  
WINDS ACROSS SOME PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. SNOWFALL  
TOTALS WERE ALSO REDUCED FOR THE JUNEAU AREA, AND WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED IF LITTLE TO NO SNOW FALLS IN JUNEAU AS THE INFLUX OF  
WARMER AIR PROVES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT AT MIXING OUT THE STABLE  
LAYER.  
   
LONG TERM  
/SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK/WITH THE FRONT  
HAVING PUSHED THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND  
WET ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE HAINES AND  
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO VERY WET SNOW OR A MIX  
OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY  
MORNING. AT SEA LEVEL, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE  
LOW TO MID 40S THROUGH THE DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT DUE  
TO CONTINUING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER. CONTINUING FROM  
FRIDAY, THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO  
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND SLOWLY  
WEAKEN, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SUNDAY AND  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE  
INTO THE YUKON WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS AND  
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING OVER  
THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THESE INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE  
FURTHER AMPLIFIED DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN GULF SOMETIME  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR NORTHWARD, MODELS  
ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH  
ABOVE FREEZING FOR TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITH  
INCREASING OUTFLOW WINDS BRINGING COLD DRY AIR FROM THE INTERIOR,  
ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO  
THE INSIDE WATERS WILL BE PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW.  
 
OVERALL BIG TAKEAWAYS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE WIDESPREAD COLDER  
TEMPERATURES WITH OUTFLOW WINDS PICKING UP AND LINGERING SHOWERS  
ALONG THE OUTER COAST, POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE INNER  
CHANNELS THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
INCOMING FRONT TO BRING LOWERED FLYING CONDITIONS AROUND  
SE AK. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY BRING RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE, BUT NORTH  
OF ICY STRAIGHT CAN EXPECT TO SEE SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION. AS  
THIS FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY OVER THE PANHANDLE, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL  
BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH TIMES OF IFR POSSIBLE FOR SOME  
LOCATIONS. THIS FRONT ALSO CREATES WIDESPREAD LLWS ESPECIALLY ALONG  
COASTAL AREAS.  
 
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE  
THE FRONT CLEARS OUT, CONDITIONS, INCLUDING CIG, VIS, AND LLWS,  
WILL IMPROVE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
GULF: EASTERLY WINDS REACHING MOSTLY GALE FORCE FOR THE COAST.  
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING, EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH STORM FORCE FOR  
A FEW HOURS. SEAS INCREASE TO 14 TO 17 FT BEFORE WSW SWELL BEGINS  
TO IMPACT THE GULF, SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS ALONG OUR NEAR SHORE  
WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20FT.  
 
INNER CHANNELS: KEY POINT, EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND  
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS FOR PART OF THE AFTERNOON AS  
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. WINDS DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20  
KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.  
STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318-327.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ319.  
STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON AKST TODAY FOR  
AKZ320>322.  
STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR AKZ323.  
STRONG WIND FROM 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON  
FOR AKZ325.  
STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR AKZ328>330-332.  
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652.  
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-036-641>644-651-664-671-672.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032>035-053-661>663.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...GFS  
LONG TERM....STJ  
AVIATION...GJS  
 
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  
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