579
FXAK67 PAJK 161506
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 AM AKST SAT NOV 16 2024
SHORT TERM
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SE
AK, WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OUTER GULF
COAST. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS
CONTINUING TO BRING IN COOLER AIR ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK,
GENERATING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GULF AND IN THE PANHANDLE. IF
THIS WERE DEEP INTO WINTER, THIS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT AS IT IS, ANTICIPATE MAINLY RAIN.
SOME STRONGER SHOWERS COULD DROP SLEET, AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE OUTER GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROADLY ON A SLOW COOLING TREND AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SOME ADDITIONAL
DETAILS FOR WIND DIRECTIONS IN SOME OF THE INNER CHANNELS, AS WELL
AS ADDITIONAL TIMING ON WHEN WIND SPEEDS WOULD DIMINISH. OVERALL,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
LONG TERM
HEADING INTO SUNDAY, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW HANGING OUT IN THE
GULF, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS COLDER AIR,
WHAT WOULD BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR WILL BE STRAIGHT SNOW. AS
THE LOW DIVES TO THE SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE YUKON. WITH THIS, OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FOR THE START OF THE WEEK GOING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOCATIONS THAT ARE FAVORED BY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING US
OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. WITH THAT, LOWERED CURRENT
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/
EXPECT SHOWERS WITH PRIMARILY MVFR
TO VFR CATEGORY CIG AND VIS FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND BENIGN LLWS
VALUES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR PAGY, GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...JLC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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