334
FXAK67 PAJK 171405
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
505 AM AKST SUN NOV 17 2024
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
DRIFT TO THE SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE EXITING THE REGION MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUN, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH N TO S
HEADING INTO MON. POPS WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD FOR LATE SUN AND
MON, BUT MAY SEE PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH QUICKER. ALSO, INCREASED
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS FOR LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE AS THE N TO S
OUTFLOW PRESSURE GRADIENT PACKING TIGHTENS OVER TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO MINIMAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY TUE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON ADVECTS A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PEAK WED-THU AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES N
TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII BEFORE MOVING E INTO BC. THIS WILL ALSO ADVECT
IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON WITH GENERALLY 5-10F
BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE SHOWS AIRMASS MODERATING BY LATE WEEK SO
SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON THIS
PATTERN CHANGE AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
DRIER COLDER WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND VFR. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN
LATER TODAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO -SNRA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY. CLEARING TO VFR LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
OVER THE GULF: FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
AND W-SW SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN BEFORE EASING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SE INTO MON.
INNER CHANNELS: GRADIENT BECOMES NORTHERLY FROM N TO S SUN INTO
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
GRADIENT TIGHTENS MON AND TUE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES N TOWARDS
HAIDA GWAII. EXPECT NEAR GALE TO STRONG GALE NORTHERLIES FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK BEFORE GRADIENT EASES AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO BC.
ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH THESE NORTHERLIES
WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER LYNN CANAL, N ARMS
OF GLACIER BAY AND STEPHENS PASSAGE OUT TAKU INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....BC
AVIATION...AP
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