399
FXAK67 PAJK 181548
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
648 AM AKST MON NOV 18 2024
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
A LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ALONG
THE GULF AS IT WEAKENS. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE PANHANDLE. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY TODAY FOR THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE AND TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF CONTINUES TO MOVES SE, HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
YUKON. THIS HIGH WILL ADVECT COLD TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE.
A LOW THEN MOVES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING FOR OUTFLOW WINDS,
CREATED FROM THE GRADIENT OF HIGH TO LOW PRESSURE. THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH LYNN CANAL INCREASING
TO GALES MONDAY NIGHT. OTHER NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INSIDE
CHANNELS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY TUE AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON ADVECTS A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PEAK TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE NEAR WESTERN WASHINGTON MOVES SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN CANADA MOVES EASTWARD, TIGHTENING THE EXISTING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA NEAR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AT 925-850 MB WILL RESULT IN STORM FORCE WINDS FOR LYNN
CANAL AND GALES IN CLARENCE STRAIT, TAKU INLET, DISENCHANTMENT
BAY, PARTS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND POSSIBLY THE UPPER ARMS OF
GLACIER BAY. CURRENTLY, WINDS IN SKAGWAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REACH 55 MPH WITH LESS THAN 20% CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT
INFORMATION TO ACHIEVE HIGH WIND CRITERIA OF 60 MPH GUSTS.
DEFINITELY AN AREA TO WATCH GOING FORWARD AS BOTH THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE YUKON AND THE STRONG STORM FAR SOUTH OF SE AK
DEVELOPS. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, STRONG NORTHERLIES
IN LYNN CANAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WILL GENERATE FULLY
DEVELOPED SEAS NEAR POINT RETREAT AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
CLARENCE STRAIT. ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SOUTHERN SWELL TO 10
FT. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM NEAR WASHINGTON WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, BROUGHT UP TEMPERATURES IN LYNN CANAL DUE TO
STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING FROM HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. THEREFORE,
REDUCED THE AREA OF ANY FREEZING SPRAY TO AROUND THE TAKU INLET
AND NORTHERN LYNN CANAL/TAIYA INLET AND REMOVED THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. SHELTERED AREA NEAR MENDENHALL VALLEY,
GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND PARTS OF HAINES WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMET TO THE MID TEENS. FURTHERMORE, UP ON KLONDIKE HIGHWAY,
STRONGER WINDS FROM INTENSE CAA WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS (APPARENT
TEMPERATURE) DOWN TO -20 DEGREES F AND BELOW.
GETTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE GENERAL TREND IS TO HAVE THE
CANADIAN HIGH WEAKEN AND A WEAK LOW DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE ON A NOTICEABLE DIMINISHING TREND AS A
RESULT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND CAA WEAKEN. SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN GULF LOW ALONG THE
OUTER COAST, BUT WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THAT CHANCE IS GETTING LESS AND LESS WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY/
SHOWERS FIRST THING THIS
MORNING MOVING NORTH INTO PAJN DROPPING CIGS AND VSBY DOWN TO IFR.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INCREASING TO VFR IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH PANHANDLE, WITH MORE
PERSISTENT MVFR -SHRA IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THROUGH THE WEEK
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE PANHANDLE BRINGING COLD
TEMPERATURES, STRONG NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, AND VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
STRONG BREEZES CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SE INTO MONDAY. AS A HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER CANADA; WINDS IN
THE INNER CHANNELS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY. THIS NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LOW MOVES SOUTH OF
THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM THIS TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
THESE NORTHERLIES WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER
LYNN CANAL, N ARMS OF GLACIER BAY AND STEPHENS PASSAGE OUT TAKU
INLET.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318-323-325.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-022-053-643-651-663-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-031>033-035-036-641-642-644-
652-661-662-664-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP
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