866
FXAK67 PAJK 200015
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST TUE NOV 19 2024
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT / MADE MINIMAL CHANGES AS
AREA FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND OUTFLOW
WINDS. DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWERS FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO GET
TO FREEZING TOO, WITH LIMITED AMOUNT OF SOLAR HEATING FOUND IN THE
LATER HALF OF NOVEMBER.
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST WAVES FOR THE LYNN CANAL-
CHATHAM STRAIT TO MORE 'FULLY DEVELOPED' SEAS SO HEIGHT FOR
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHERN CHATHAM IN THE 9 TO 13 FOOT
RANGE.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
REGION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEGINNING THE TRANSITION FROM THE VERY COLD, DRY, AND WINDY
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AS THE
YUKON HIGH AND LOW OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WEAKEN WITH A
WEAK LOW TRACKING INTO THE NE GULF. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
FRIDAY WITH GALES OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AND OVERLAND GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE THEN THE DROP OFF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS A CHANCE TO MOVE IN MONDAY WITH LIGHT
PRECIP INDICATED BY ENSEMBLES BUT LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP IT
OFFSHORE UNTIL TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN ENSEMBLES PUT IN A BROAD LOW OVER
THE AK GULF WITH A FRONT REMAINING OVER SE AK. MEANWHILE GFS/ECMWF
OPERATIONAL MOVE IN ANOTHER RIDGE KEEPING ANY PRECIP OVER THIS TIME
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MORE BREAKS. ANY PRECIP FOR THE INITIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE SNOW. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND A WARM MOIST MID
LEVEL AIR MASS TO THE WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. RIGHT NOW GFS/ECMWF HAVE 24 HOUR AMOUNTS IN
THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE MID WEEK. BUT 850 MB TEMPS CREEP UP TO THE -3
TO -6 C RANGE WHICH GETS MORE TOWARDS A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR POSSIBLY
ALL RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN INTO SUNDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
WITH CLEARING SKIES, THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTOR
FOR FLYING WILL BE AREAS OF LLWS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THE CANADIAN INTERIOR AS WELL AS AN INTENSE CYCLONE OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY, WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
MARINE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS
TONIGHT, AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. GALES FORCE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BECAUSE
OF THE OUTFLOW, OR INTERIOR PASSES GUIDING THE CHANNELED WINDS.
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL MAY STAY AT A VERY STRONG GALE BUT HAVE GONE
WITH MINIMUM STORM FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. WILL ALSO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING SPRAY WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
AKZ325.
STRONG WIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ013-022-031>033-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-034>036-652-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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