854
FXAK67 PAJK 151618
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
718 AM AKST SUN DEC 15 2024
UPDATE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED AROUND THE JUNEAU AIRPORT
THIS MORNING AND AS A RESULT PUTTING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DOWN
UPON SURFACES. MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE EXTENDING UP 1000 FT
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE HAS PROVIDED IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 414 AM AKST SUN DEC 15
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CANADA WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PERSIST FOR THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WITH MOST PLACES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING. THERE ARE A FEW PLACES THAT ARE THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
BUT ARE STILL IN THE MID THIRTIES. CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
THIS MORNING WERE TO DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE GULF COAST. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. ELSEWHERE KEPT CHANCES LOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COAST AND CANADA TIGHTENS.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT/...MONDAY IS LOOKING TO BE
GENERALLY A DRY DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
SPREADS ACROSS MORE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WINDS PICKING UP IN LYNN
CANAL WITH STRONGEST WIND FOR THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE SCALE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, BERING SEA, GULF
OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE CENTERS OF SMALL LOWS WILL BE SPINNING ABOUT
THE LARGE SCALE LOW. A FRONTAL BAND WILL BE APPROACHING THE
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. SWEEPING NORTH, IT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES DEPICT A TROUGHY PATTERN OVER THE
GULF. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE A ONE LARGE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH LITTLE SHORT WAVE LOWS ROTATING ABOUT
THE PERIPHERY. TIMING THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP US ON OUR TOES
BUT THE OVERALL IDEA IS ACTIVE WEATHER.
AVIATION...AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ONLY TRACE PRECIPITATION
HAD FALLEN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING
NON-IMPACTFUL SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED THERE LATER TODAY. MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS BEEN CLOUD FREE TONIGHT WITH POCKETS OF CIGS
BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT. A HIGH OVERCAST HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIMITING
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED IN FROM CANADA, SO A LACK OF FOG IS NOT COMPLETELY
UNEXPECTED EVEN THOUGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS
ARE ZERO. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KTS IN HAINES OFFERING THE ONLY INDICATION THAT THERE REALLY
IS AN OUTFLOW EVENT IN PROGRESS. 925MB STREAMLINES DO NOT INDICATE
MUCH OF ANY OFFSHORE FLOW EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS
SUGGEST THAT IS IT PRESENT. IN SUMMARY, ANOTHER DAY OF FINE FLYING
WEATHER WITH NO CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS, TURBULENCE, OR LLWS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661-662.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....BEZENEK/GJS
AVIATION...FRITSCH
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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