866
FXAK67 PAJK 161315
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 AM AKST MON DEC 16 2024
SHORT TERM
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CANADA THIS MORNING WHILE
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE GULF DOWN TO
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE CLEAR SKIES PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
GENERALLY COLDER THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE. OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WINDS
INCREASE. THE EXCEPTION BEING THAT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DROP AS QUICK FOR AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN STORY FOR THE MID
RANGE IS THAT OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP IN LYNN
CANAL AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MIDWEEK WHICH
WILL BRING SOME SNOW AND EVENTUALLY RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT
STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
PARTICULARLY LYNN CANAL AND INTO ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND.
NOW FOR SOME DETAILS: A LARGE SCALE LOW WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
EARLY TO MIDWEEK. MULTIPLE SMALLER CIRCULATIONS WILL BE SPINNING
ABOUT THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BAND
FROM ONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. SWEEPING NORTH, IT WILL LIKELY SPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIKELY
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SUCH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN, THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE PATH OF THESE SMALLER LOWS MOVING INTO THE GULF. SOME
SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FEATURE TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE AND
DECAYING WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER POW AND KETCHIKAN. OTHERS HAVE
IT REMAINING FURTHER WEST IN THE GULF AND DIMINISHING, BUT
ALLOWING THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT TO OVERSPREAD PRECIPITATION
FURTHER NORTHWARD. IN BOTH SCENARIOS, THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THIS FEATURE AS COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND MAY LEAD TO
OVERRUNNING INITIALLY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS MULTIPLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
THE GULF.
AVIATION
925MB STREAMLINE CHARTS ARE NOW CLEARLY SHOWING
OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT IT IS VERY WEAK.
ONE THING THAT IS STRONG IS THE DENSITY ALTITUDE - AROUND NEGATIVE
2000FT. WINDS, LOW LEVEL AND ALOFT, CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT EXCEPT
FOR SKAGWAY AND HAINES WHERE WINDS ARE IN THE TEENS. PATCHES OF
CIGS DOWN TO 1000FT, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY. WOW, WHAT GOOD
DAY TO GO FLY. SURE WISH I STILL HAD MY SKYHAWK!
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...FRITSCH
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