981
FXAK67 PAJK 181336
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
436 AM AKST WED DEC 18 2024
SHORT TERM
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CROSS HAIDA GWAII AND MOVE INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN COLD FOR AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A SWITCH FROM SNOW TO RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. AS SUCH, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS CANCELED. OUTFLOW
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS OUR NEXT
GALE FORCE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF THIS
EVENING BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE PANHANDLE AND A RETURN
OF SNOW.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN STORY FOR
THE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
DRIVEN BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY MIDWEEK.
MULTIPLE SMALLER CIRCULATIONS WILL BE SPINNING ABOUT THIS LARGE
SCALE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE PANHANDLE IN THE SHORT RANGE, ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND FEATURING
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLE
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE
LIKELY CHANGED TO ALL RAIN BY THE TIME OF THIS FRONTAL BAND
BRINGING A FRESH INFLUX OF MOISTURE, THOUGH SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH COLDER AIR STILL IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE, AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW, SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM
WRANGELL NORTHWARD, WITH 24 HR TOTALS RANGING FROM 1 - 3 INCHES.
AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP TO
FREDERICK SOUND IS EXPECTED TO SEE A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY RAIN
BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING FURTHER
NORTH STILL FALLING AS EITHER A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR ALL SNOW. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SPLIT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD, WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE
TRANSITION TO RAIN, BUT ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT REACHES INLAND AND NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
REGARDLESS, MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
WITH HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND A MERRY GO ROUND OF
SYSTEMS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE GULF, INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER STOUT THROUGH THE MID RANGE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL ALSO
BE TURBULENT WITH SEAS OF 15 - 20+ FT DUE TO AN ONGOING SSE SWELL
AND THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
TREND CONTINUES TO BE WARM AND WET WITH SEVERAL POTENTIALLY GALE
FORCE FRONTS/LOWS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
S. THE DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN IS SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN
850 MB TEMPS AROUND FREEZING SO SEA LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A WIDE AREA OF THE PANHANDLE ARE LIKELY. RAIN WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE THE DOMINATE PTYPE WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT
OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LIKELY FOR THE GULF WATERS AND PERIODS OF 25 TO 30 KT FOR VARIOUS
INNER CHANNEL AREAS AS WELL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE REMAINS IN VFR CONDITIONS, WITH AN
ELEVATED CLOUD DECK WHERE CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. A SYSTEM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WITH
IT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LLWS, AS WELL AS SNOW IN COOLER POCKETS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
OUTFLOW WINDS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
CANADA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW MOVES IN CANADA
TODAY. SEAS THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH THE ONGOING OUTFLOW WINDS. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF TONIGHT
BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-661>664-671-672. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-031-036-053-641>644-651-652.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...SF
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