178
FXAK67 PAJK 190634 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
326 PM AKST WED DEC 18 2024
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT / HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA CREATING AN OUTFLOW PATTERN IS THE START WEATHER
SITUATION. A WEATHER FRONT APPROACHES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SO PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL START AS RAIN WITH A RAIN/SNOW LINE NEAR SUMNER
STRAIT. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE THE ROADS ON PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, MAY BE A MIX OR SNOW. BY MID MORNING, THE RAINS SNOW LINE
WILL BE MOVING NORTH TO FREDERICK SOUND. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE RAIN SNOW LINE IS PUSHING TOWARDS ICY STRAIT.
THE INCOMING FRONT IS FALLING APART AS THE MAIN LOW STAYS OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL NOT BRING MUCH CHANGE TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID
RANGE DRIVEN BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE GALE FORCE
LOW ROTATE ABOUT THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. STILL FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND EXTEND OF THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
LOWS SO PIN POINTING POP IS PROBLEMATIC. THE DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN
IS SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA BRINGING IN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND FREEZING
SO SEA LEVEL TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A WIDE AREA OF THE
PANHANDLE ARE LIKELY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE PTYPE WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THAT
TIME. MOST AREAS TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY RAIN UP TO ICY STRAIT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING FURTHER NORTH
STILL FALLING AS EITHER A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR ALL SNOW. HAINES AND
KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS ABOUT ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT RECEIVE MUCH
ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH UPWARDS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. INNER
CHANNEL WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
MID RANGE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL ALSO BE TURBULENT WITH PERIODS OF 25
TO 35 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 - 20+ FT DUE TO AN ONGOING SSE SWELL
AND THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH.
AVIATION
FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR WITH TIMES OF MVFR
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO STAY
ELEVATED IN SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND KLAWOCK. WITH A FRONT APPROACHING
THE PANHANDLE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS THIS
FRONT APPROACHES, PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WHICH MAY CAUSE
LIMITATIONS TO VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE FRONT WILL FIRST
REDUCE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO MVFR AND MAKE ITS WAY NORTH CAUSING
WIDESPREAD MVFR, WITH TIMES OF IFR, BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING TO
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A LARGE BROAD LOW EXTENDS FROM THE ALEUTIANS, NORTH
PACIFIC, AND GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-036-053-642>644-651-652.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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