111
FXAK67 PAJK 191252
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 AM AKST THU DEC 19 2024
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS LINGERING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE YUKON INTERACTS WITH A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF, HELPING TO KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME WARMING
WILL BE SLOWLY UNDERWAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE S.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE AS THE ASSOCIATED WARMER AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES N, AND RUNS INTO THE STILL EXTANT COOLER AIR MASS,
EXPECT SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF KAKE.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF THOUGH, GIVEN THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE AND THE DRIER AIR THE SYSTEM IS ADVANCING INTO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND EVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS ADVANCE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST, PRIMARILY
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS A FEW OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND LOCATIONS
LIKE POINT COUVERDEN. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR YAKUTAT, AS
COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH MORE OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES, AND INCREASED POP CHANCES
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE BROAD PRECIP COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR MID
RANGE DRIVEN BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC, BERING SEA, AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. MULTIPLE GALE FORCE
LOWS ROTATE ABOUT THIS LARGE SCALE FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION. STILL FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EXTEND OF THE FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE LOWS SO PIN POINTING POP IS PROBLEMATIC.
MOST AREAS TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY RAIN UP TO ICY STRAIT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE DOMINATE FLOW PATTERN IS SOUTHERLY OVER
THE AREA BRINGING IN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND FREEZING SO SEA LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A WIDE AREA OF THE PANHANDLE ARE
LIKELY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE PTYPE WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FT OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE DURING
THAT TIME. ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING FURTHER NORTH STILL FALLING
AS EITHER A SNOW/RAIN MIX OR ALL SNOW. HAINES AND KLONDIKE
HIGHWAYS ABOUT ONLY LOCATIONS THAT MIGHT RECEIVE MUCH ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH UPWARDS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. INNER CHANNEL WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE MID RANGE
PERIOD. THE GULF WILL ALSO BE TURBULENT WITH PERIODS OF 25 TO 35
KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 - 20+ FT DUE TO AN ONGOING SSE SWELL AND
THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH.
AVIATION
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD THIS MORNING AS MOST
LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT VFR BUT SOME REPORTS OF MVFR CIGS
AND VIS WITH FALLING SNOW ARE SHOWING UP. FARTHER SOUTH, VFR AND
RAIN IS THE STORY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD. LLWS IS ALSO LIKELY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS REFLECTED IN TAF FORECASTS FROM PAJN
SOUTHWARD. CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR FOR MOST OF
THE PANHANDLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CIGS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED INTO THE EVENING AS ANY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
GALES FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND SOME OF
THE OCEAN ENTRANCES. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW OF
THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH ELEVATED WINDS LINGERING ACROSS THE REST
THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE GALE FORCE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SURGES OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MARITIME AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-641-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-031>033-036-053-642>644-
651-652.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page