488
FXAK67 PAJK 200657 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
957 PM AKST THU DEC 19 2024
UPDATE
WE ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT
CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT IS HAVING A
HARDER TIME WORKING ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN PERIODS OF SNOW FOR PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL.
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THOSE AREAS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS. FARTHER NORTH, COLDER AIRMASS HOLDING ON
WITH THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BEING DELAYED ABOUT 6 HOURS. WE
WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN YAKUTAT WHERE TEMPERATURE IS MODIFIED OFF THE
WATER AT 36 DEGREES, BUT WITH A 19 DEWPOINT THERE WE WOULD EXPECT
WETBULB TO BRING PRECIP TYPE EVENTUALLY DOWN TO SNOW...BUT AGAIN
THE PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME WORKING ITS WAY NORTH. FOR
JUNEAU, GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, KAKE, AND ANGOON WE EXPECT PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW, EVENTUALLY GETTING TO HAINES BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH MORNING.
/JG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 356 PM AKST THU DEC 19 2024
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN LINGERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE UNTIL FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND THROUGH. SOME COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FRIDAY AND THEN WILL GIVE WAY AS WINDS IN THE CANAL BRINGS THE
WARMER AIR TO SKAGWAY AND HAINES. WHITE PASS MAY STAY SUB
FREEZING, AS WELL AS THE AREAS CLOSER TO HAINES CUSTOMS BUT THERE
MAY BE WARMING TO MAKE ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE MIXED OR
RAIN.
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT QPF THOUGH, GIVEN THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE AND THE DRIER AIR THE SYSTEM IS ADVANCING INTO.
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
CONTINUING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THE GUST WEAKEN.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW: SE AK WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF STRONG LOWS
MOVING INTO THE AK GULF FROM THE SOUTH THEN TRACKING WEST. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING IN WARM TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
FALL, AND STRONG WINDS. GULF WINDS WILL BE A GALE TO STORM FORCE
WITH SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AT
LEAST. OVERLAND WINDS GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT LEAST EXPECTED TEMPERATURES MAY NEAR RECORD
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY BORDERS WHERE AT
LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE PROBABLE.
A MID LEVEL LOW IS THE MAIN STEERING FORCE FOR THE MID RANGE THAT
KEEPS THESE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ENTERING THE AREA. WHILE
THE MID LEVEL LOW VARIES AS SMALLER WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT NOT
SEEING ANY MOVEMENT FROM THE AREA UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS DEPICTING
THE WARM SWATH OF AIR MOVING IN INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH POSSIBLE 50S, IF THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS
ACCURATE. CURRENT RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EFI HAS THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS FOR SUNDAY THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY. GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH LIKELY BUT AS MOST OF THE FRONTS AS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOWS PULLING BACK TO THE WEST HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER.
ENSEMBLES DEPICTING CONSISTENT FEATURES WITH THE OPERATIONAL
INDICATING SOME DIFFERENCES EARLY ON. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR WINDS BUT STARTED TO SEE NAM AND CANADIAN
FALL IN LINE WITH HIGHER GULF WINDS SUNDAY.
AVIATION...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE PANHANDLE CREATING
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO STAY ON
THE DRYER SIDE ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING TIMES OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMES OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CAN CREATE MVFR CEILINGS. THINGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DRY OFF FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
REACHES THE PANHANDLE. THIS CLEARING COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, THIS CLEARING WILL
ALLOW FOR TIMES OF VFR BEFORE RAIN RETURNS.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW OF THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH ELEVATED WINDS LINGERING ACROSS THE REST THROUGH
FRIDAY. MORE GALE FORCE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND WILL SEE SURGES OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MARITIME AREAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-033-035-036-053-642>644-651-
652-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...PRB
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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