157
FXAK67 PAJK 210023
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKST FRI DEC 20 2024
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT / FRONT MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONG WIND
THIS EVENING THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND OVER PRINCE OF WALES AND
INTO CLARENCE STRAIT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THE FOR POW AND SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AND BARANOF ISLAND. THERE ARE ALSO GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH NEAR SKAGWAY.
PRECIPITATION WISE RAIN OR MIXED FOR THE SOUTH, AND AS THE FRONT
SHEARS APART THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE GOING TO LESS
SURE, WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A HIGHER POP LOW QPF EVENT. MAY NEED
TO WATCH FOR FREEZING P-TYPE AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH
AND COLDER BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY HANG ON OVER SOME OF
THE NORTHERN INNER VALLEYS.
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH THE NEXT BIG WEATHER
FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERVIEW: ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE MID RANGE WITH A SERIES OF
STRONG LOWS AND FRONTS MOVING INTO THE AK GULF FROM THE SOUTH.
EXPECT WARM TEMPS, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND STRONG GUSTS WINDS.
MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY SHOW UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DEPICTING
A LOW TRACKING TOWARDS HAIDA GWAII MAKING ANY FORECAST FROM THAT
POINT ONWARD UNCERTAIN.
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY KEEPING THAT SW FLOW THAT KEEPS MOVING IN THE STRONG
SURFACE LOWS. SUNDAY FRONT LOOKING GOOD FOR STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
THE GULF AND SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS. ANY MARINE TRAVEL SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH
THE MAIN LOW PULLING OFF TO THE WEST OVERLAND WIND GUSTS LOOKING
TO STAY IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 60 MPH
OR MORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS AS THE WARM MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN SO ANY
PRECIP FALLING SHOULD BE RAIN. AND THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UPWARDS OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES SHOULD BE SEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TUESDAY.
MID WEEK ONWARD WE ARE WATCHING FOR A LOW TRACKING UP FROM THE
SOUTH OVER HAIDA GWAII. GFS AS BEEN MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
STRENGTH, TIMING, AND NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. OTHER
MODELS STARTING TO DEPICT THIS FEATURE BUT ALL MUCH WEAKER. WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR SE AK IF THIS LOW DEVELOPS: DRYER AND BIT COOLER
WEATHER TO THE NORTH, WINDY AND WARMER WITH MORE MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIP FOR THE SOUTH AGAIN. BEYOND MID WEEK, LOOKS LIKE MUCH
OF THE SAME WITH MULTIPLE LOWS TRACKING IN AND NO REAL INDICATION
OF ANY COLD AIR OR EXTENDED WEATHER BREAKS.
AVIATION
RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BAND HAS BEGUN OVER THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS OF 00Z. HOWEVER, STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH
THE FRONT IS KEEPING CEILINGS ELEVATED. LLWS IS INCLUDED FOR MOST
TAF SITES AS A RESULT AND HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON LATEST NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS. PRECIP AND MVFR CEILINGS AS THE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, LIKELY LESS THAN 6 HOURS. EXPECT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO BE CLEAR OF THE FRONT AROUND 6Z AND THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE 12-14Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LLWS TO PERSIST
BEYOND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER. LOOKING AHEAD TO
SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS ANOTHER BREAK EXPECTED BETWEEN FRONTAL
BANDS...RELATIVELY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MARINE
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BANDS
OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL LEAD TO SWATHS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS WILL IMPACT THE INNER WATER BETWEEN NORTH OUTFLOW IN LYNN
CANAL AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BANDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR
AKZ323.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ328.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ330-332.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031-033>036-053-651.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...BEZENEK
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