989
FXAK67 PAJK 290627
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1027 PM AKDT FRI MAR 28 2025
UPDATE
WIND SPEEDS IN LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET HAVE DIMINISHED FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED THUS UPDATING THE FORECAST TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT NORTHERLY MODERATE BREEZES TO CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SAT NIGHT/ NORTHERLY OUTFLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TAKU INLET, LYNN CANAL,
STIKINE RIVER, AND PORTLAND CANAL HAVE BEEN SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT
OUTFLOW WINDS MOST OF THE DAY. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY STARTING TO DIMINISH
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THINGS START TO CHANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL SEE THE EFFECT FIRST AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT, BUT IT WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN (MAYBE SOME MIXING WITH SNOW TO START WITH) FOR
MOST LOW ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SKAGWAY AND
HAINES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT WITH LITTLE QPF TO WORK
WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LESS THEN AN INCH.
WINDS MIGHT BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE AS THERE WILL
BE A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY WITH SOME
INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR VARIOUS INNER CHANNEL AREAS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE PARTICULARLY ON
WHEN THE WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WILL HAPPEN FOR VARIOUS AREAS BY
AS MUCH AS 6 HOURS. DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING WITH
A LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LATER TIMING IN THE NORTH AS LINGERING
OUTFLOW MAY DELAY THE WIND SHIFT, OR CAUSE IT TO NOT HAPPEN AT ALL
AROUND NORTHERN LYNN.
LONG TERM
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. VERY MINIMAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN IS
GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN. THE PARENT LOW TO
THIS FRONT WILL DETERIORATE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE.
AT THIS SAME TIME, WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR WATERS WILL
DECREASE AS THE LOW DIMINISHES. THE EAST WEST GRADIENT WILL KEEP
TAKU INLET AND STIKINE RIVER AREA WINDS ELEVATED UNTIL EARLY
SUNDAY.
THE RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MAKE THE EARLY START OF THE WEEK
DRY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ENTERS THE GULF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WEAK
OUTFLOW WILL OCCUR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS A STRONGER NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTED GRADIENT. THIS OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
AND STEPHENS PASSAGE TO INCREASE MONDAY TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES.
THESE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT STAYS IN PLACE AS THE NEW LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA.
THE LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR NOT ONLY
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND WIND, BUT ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES. THE THEN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE AS WEAK OUTFLOW
CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE WITH CLEAR SKIES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON A
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BRINGING CIGS AOB 3500FT TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH LIGHT RAIN. THERE IS SOME THREAT OF
LLWS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OF MARINERS
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THOUGH THOSE WINDS WILL BE SHOWING A
DIMINISHING TREND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS A WEAKER TROUGH MOVES
NORTH. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THAT TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SE GULF WATERS OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH 25 TO 30 KT E WINDS SATURDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THAT TROUGH MOVES IN. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH UP TO 8 TO 9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. THE INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY
THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS, MEANWHILE WILL SHOW A WIND DIRECTION
CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
TO 15 TO 20 KT AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
LAST HOWEVER AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME SUNDAY AS OUTFLOW
REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...AP/EAL
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