450
FXAK67 PAJK 291353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-OVERALL, ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
-MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
LIGHT RAIN.
-THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING BRIEF ELEVATED WINDS TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES NORTH.
-AS THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH, MARINE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY
TO SOUTHERLY.
-WIND SPEEDS DECREASE POST-FRONT PASSAGE.
DETAILS:
INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF INTERRUPTION TO THE SUNNY AND DRY
WEATHER THE PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SEEING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND WON'T SEE THE CLOUDS INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING WITH THE RAIN ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TODAY WITH THE LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH, MARINE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS, AND THE DIRECTION
CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY, WILL HAPPEN FIRST IN THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE
FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT IS
WHEN THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LYNN CANAL. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS YOUR AREA, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS, WITH SPEEDS LIKE THAT LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER SUNDAY MORNING BUT QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE LEFTOVER RAIN MOVES OUT. THE PARENT
LOW TO THIS FRONT WILL DETERIORATE AS AN INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS
OVER THE PANHANDLE. AT THIS SAME TIME, WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR WATERS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW DIMINISHES. THE EAST WEST
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TAKU INLET AND STIKINE RIVER AREA WINDS
ELEVATED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY.
THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MAKE THE EARLY START
OF THE WEEK DRY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW ENTERS THE GULF TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WEAK OUTFLOW WILL OCCUR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS A
STRONGER NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED GRADIENT. THIS OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE TO INCREASE MONDAY TO
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. THESE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE INTO MID
WEEK AS THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT STAYS IN PLACE AS THE NEW LOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR NOT ONLY
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND WIND, BUT ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH, WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AND NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES. THE THEN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY/
PRIMARILY, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CIG
& VIS CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. AS
FAR AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, WE ARE STILL IN A NORTHEASTERLY
OUTFLOW PATTERN, WHICH IS PRECIPITOUSLY WEAKENING OVER TIME AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. RELATIVELY GUSTY WINDS WILL, ONCE AGAIN,
BE IN STORE FOR NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW PRONE AREAS, WHICH ARE LOCATED
NEAR NORTH & EASTERLY FACING GAPS/INTERIOR PASSES, WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING TREND OVER TIME. SOME LLWS MAGNITUDES UP AT
AROUND 2 KFT OF UP TO AROUND 30 KT OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREAS ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT PUSHES UP INTO THE PANHANDLE
FROM THE SOUTH.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. AND NOW, OUR FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THE SE GULF WATERS OFF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH 20 TO 30 KT E WINDS SATURDAY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH UP
TO 8 TO 9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE.
THE INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS,
MEANWHILE WILL SHOW A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO
20 KT AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT LAST
HOWEVER AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME SUNDAY AS OUTFLOW
REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661>663.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAB/GJS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GJS/AP
HYDROLOGY...GJS
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