139
FXAK67 PAJK 292253
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
BRINGING RAIN AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY.
A FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HAS STARTED TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE KETCHIKAN AREA AND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT DIMINISHING SUNDAY MORNING
OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH, LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR. LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING, THE FRONT
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE LYNN CANAL AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS FOR MARINE WATERS AS THE FRONT
MOVES PAST DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE. SEAS ALONG THE GULF
WILL ALSO INCREASE UP TO 8 FT. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS YOUR AREA,
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
ON SUNDAY, AN INVERTED TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE PANHANDLE MAKING THE
EARLY START OF THE WEEK DRY. HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
CREATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTH TO
SOUTH FACING CHANNELS. AREAS ALONG THE GULF AND NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH GROWS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CHANNEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
BUT WEAK OUTFLOW WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
BIGGEST INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MID WEEK. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS
A CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH QPF
REMAINS NEAR TRACE IN MOST AREAS. WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO OUR AREA
IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS, PRECIPITATION, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME
DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODELS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGER LOW NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN THEME THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SE AK. A
QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS, BUT
SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN CIGS AND VIS ARE NOT EXPECTED. FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, SOME LLWS IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT
OUT OF THE SE OUT AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
MARINE
THE SE GULF WILL BE SEEING 20 TO 30 KT E WINDS TODAY AS
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT TRACKS NORTH. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH UP TO 8 TO 9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE.
THE INNER CHANNELS, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS,
MEANWHILE WILL SHOW A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE WEAKENING
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT AT THAT TIME AS WELL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL NOT LAST HOWEVER AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME SUNDAY AS THE
OUTFLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
AS A DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK, WE ARE SEEING
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL IN STRONG GALES AND WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 13
FT POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS EVENT WILL BRING UP INNER
CHANNEL WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO POTENTIALLY ADVISORY
HEIGHT, THOUGH THE TRUE IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-652-661>663.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...ZTK/AP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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