292
FXAK67 PAJK 301533 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
733 AM AKDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-THE LATEST FRONT, AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WILL
EXIT THE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
-THE REST OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING AT DECREASING CLOUDS AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 40S TO 50S.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE THIS MORNING, SWING BACK TO THE
NORTH, AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DETAILS:
THE RECENT FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND DECREASING CLOUDS,
A SUNNIER AFTERNOON, AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
40S TO 50S.
A BIG CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS MEANS WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING, THE OVERALL DIRECTION WILL
SWING BACK TO THE NORTH, AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, INNER CHANNEL WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT SO BY MONDAY
MORNING, INNER CHANNEL WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS, STRONGEST SPEEDS IN SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT GOING OUT INTO
THE GULF. LYNN CANAL AND STEPHEN PASSAGE WILL HAVE SPEEDS UPWARDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WIND SPEEDS OVER LAND
AREAS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE - NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE
ORDINARY. FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY, WIND SPEEDS MAY GET UP TO 10 TO
20 MPH BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS AS
AN INVERTED TROUGH GROWS OVER THE PANHANDLE. CHANNEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
BUT WEAK OUTFLOW WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WILL EXPERIENCE THE
BIGGEST INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES EXPECTED UNTIL A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MID WEEK. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS
A CHANCE TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH QPF
REMAINS NEAR TRACE IN MOST AREAS. WHEN THE LOW MOVES INTO OUR AREA
IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS, PRECIPITATION, AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME
DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODELS. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGER LOW NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
APPEARING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS MAY ALLOW
SUFFICIENT COOLING FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AROUND PETERSBURG
AND ANGOON THIS MORNING, AND NORTH TO GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU
POTENTIALLY.
PREDOMINATELY CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET TODAY WITH IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS AS THE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS. LARGER
BREAKS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF A
COASTAL SEA BREEZE.
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING FLIGHT HAZARDS BEYOND SOME MINOR TURBULENCE
NEAR TERRAIN OR PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
MARINE
MAIN CONCERN IN THE MARINE FORECAST IS THE RETURN OF
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SO BY MONDAY MORNING, WIND SPEEDS IN
N-S ORIENTED CHANNELS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ033-641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...GJS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
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