113
FXAK67 PAJK 302250
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
250 PM AKDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MON NIGHT
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AGAIN ON MON. INVERTED TROUGH EXPANDING N
THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY MON.
INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR JUNEAU, HOONAH, GUSTAVUS AND
PETERSBURG ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS INCREASED MIXING WILL
HELP DRY THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MORE CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPING OVER
THE NE GULF COAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE RELAXED THERE.
BIGGEST CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE SOME WINDS
IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO RETRACT, THOUGH LYNN CANAL WILL STILL
SEE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
QPF REMAINS LOW IN MOST AREAS.
A DEEP LOW FORMING IN THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GALES OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
CHANNELS, THOUGH HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
HIGH MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, PEAKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS SETTLE
IN. PROTECTED AREAS FROM DEVELOPING STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
INNER CHANNELS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AGAIN, THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD. N GULF WINDS SLACKENING AND SHIFTING
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG FOR N GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WHILE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES AND MINOR
TURBULENCE NEAR TERRAIN ARE POSSIBLE, NO HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO MON AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER SE AK. FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE EASING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MUCH STRONGER LOW MOVING
INTO THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH. CURRENT FORECAST FOR GALES IN THE GULF IS THE MOST
LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031>033-641>643-661>664.
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BC
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