834
FXAK67 PAJK 312231
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
231 PM AKDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUE NIGHT
INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO EASE
SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S RISING TO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S AGAIN TUE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. INHERITED FORECAST
REPRESENTED THIS WELL WITH CHANGES LIMITED TO ADJUSTING STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION FOR THERMALLY DRIVEN WINDS.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT BREEZES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET WILL STILL SEE FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL SWITCH SOUTHERLY IN THE CHANNELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PRECEDING THE GALE FORCE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH US
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE DEEP LOW FORMING IN THE GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
WITH MODELS DROPPING AS LOW AS 975MB AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OUTER COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GALES AND
SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 FT OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
CHANNELS, THOUGH HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
HIGH MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY PEAKING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE ONSET FIRST, AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATED AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. YAKUTAT IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ANOTHER DAY OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE INNER
CHANNELS. ASIDE FROM SOME VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS DUE TO
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF
PERIOD AND NO PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ON THE
HORIZON.
MARINE
NLY WINDS WILL EASE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH WEAKENS OVER SE AK. FRESH BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE EASING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON A MUCH STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND
BUT DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. CURRENT FORECAST FOR GALES IN THE
GULF IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-031>033-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BC
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