528
FXAK67 PAJK 011304
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
504 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER QUIET AND SUNNY DAY TODAY.
-MARINE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE.
-AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS
NEAR NORMAL.
DETAILS:
SIMPLY PUT, QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER SE
AK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS
WILL BE MARINE WIND SPEEDS DECREASING.
OTHERWISE, STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF SUNNY SKIES WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO 50S.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, DIPPING TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF FREEZING.
LONG TERM
DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT BREEZES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH LYNN CANAL AND TAKU INLET WILL STILL SEE FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAKENING
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WILL SWITCH SOUTHERLY IN THE CHANNELS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY PRECEDING THE GALE FORCE FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH US
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHS
NEAR OR ABOVE 50 DEGREES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE DEEP LOW FORMING IN THE GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
WITH MODELS DROPPING AS LOW AS 975MB AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OUTER COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GALES AND
SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 FT OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE
CHANNELS, THOUGH HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
HIGH MODEL SPREAD AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY PEAKING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE THE ONSET FIRST, AS WELL AS THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATED AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. YAKUTAT IS
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH 2-3 INCHES TOTAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT / ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD FLYING
WEATHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A BAND OF A HIGH OVERCAST LAYER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BIGGEST HAZARD ANTICIPATED MAY BE LOCAL TURBULENCE
NEAR TERRAIN AS NORTH WINDS IN IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE
INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.
MARINE
NLY WINDS WILL EASE TODAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH
WEAKENS OVER SE AK. FRESH BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE EASING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A MUCH STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND BUT
DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. CURRENT FORECAST FOR GALES IN THE GULF IS
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ661.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...BC/GJS
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