356
FXAK67 PAJK 022252
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 PM AKDT WED APR 2 2025
SHORT TERM
DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES REMAIN THE BIG STORY
THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS IN STORE
BEGINNING FRIDAY.
ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE
GULF OF AK, BRINGING STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER, WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PANHANDLE. A
WEAK MARINE LAYER FORMED OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT LARGELY
REMAINED OFFSHORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN LARGELY SIMILAR, WITH CLEAR SKIES,
BARRING A FEW LOCATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WHILE
A MARINE LAYER MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN, ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL STAY
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL LIKEWISE REMAIN SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS NEAR SEA
LEVEL. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGIN
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, BUT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE OVER LAND-BASED
AREAS. THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING OFF TO THE E, OPENING UP A PATH FOR STORM SYSTEMS
ROTATING AROUND THE FLANK OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH TO RACE UP FROM
THE SE INTO THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE DEEP LOW FORMING IN THE GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH MODELS DROPPING AS LOW AS 970MB AS THE FRONT
REACHES THE OUTER COAST. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO HELP FUEL THIS SYSTEM AND BRING AN END TO
THE NICE WEATHER WE'VE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GALES AND SEA HEIGHTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18
FT OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ELEVATED WINDS TO THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES NEAR CHANNEL ENTRANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THIS SYSTEM BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY PEAKING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COASTAL REGIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE ONSET FIRST, AS WELL
AS THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATED AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.
YAKUTAT IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION WITH 1-3
INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY/
CIG & VIS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITHIN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY, & GENERALLY BENIGN SFC WINDS ARE
IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
APPRECIABLE VARIATION WILL BE BETWEEN SEA AND LAND BREEZES. LLWS
VALUES WILL REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, INNER CHANNEL WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY AROUND LIGHT BREEZE, PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY
REACHING MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MARINE WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE QUIET SIDE UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK WHEN A GALE FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
BY FRIDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE OUTER COAST
WITH THIS FRONT WITH PEAKS NEAR 20FT ALONG THE OUTER COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AGAIN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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