774
FXAK67 PAJK 031305
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
505 AM AKDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SHORT TERM
THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
YESTERDAY'S FRONT IS NOW WELL INTO CANADA AND THE PARENT LOW IS
MEANDERING NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. THE PANHANDLE IS LEFT WITH SW
ONSHORE FLOW WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH THE FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. STILL
SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME ICE
PELLETS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT SITKA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT TAME WITH ONLY NORTHERN LYNN AND SKAGWAY
SHOWING ANYTHING OVER 20 KT OF WIND THIS MORNING. THOSE WINDS
SHOULD STAY SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY EXTENDING FROM A
STORM FORCE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS SYSTEM
ARE WINDS AND MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY, WITH GALES TO STRONG
GALES EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER GULF COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEST OF 140W, THOUGH NOT ALL
OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM KAYAK ISLAND TO AROUND YAKUTAT, HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT THESE
WINDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT HIGH. THE EC AGREES WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND KAYAK ISLAND AND FURTHER WEST, BUT THERE IS NOT
COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON THESE 50 KT WINDS EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE. THE EFI FOR THIS SYSTEM MONDAY SHOWS INDICATIONS OF
THESE ABOVE NORMAL WINDS ALONG THE COAST, BUT ALSO SHOWS SOME
CONFIDENCE OF INCREASED WINDS UP INTO THE N-S CHANNELS OF THE
PANHANDLE WHEN THE FRONT MOVES IN. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN CHANNELS UP THROUGH STEPHENS
PASSAGE AS THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, DUE TO THE TIGHTENED
GRADIENT FROM A RIDGE SITTING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS THE LOW
APPROACHES.
THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING THREATS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TO BE AROUND YAKUTAT AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR ANNETTE
ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT AT MUCH LIGHTER RATES AND WITH NO WIND CONCERNS, AS
A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY.
AVIATION
WHILE HEAVIER STRATIFORM RAIN HAS MOVED INLAND OVERNIGHT
INTO CANADA, POST FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE STILL BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES AND
PRODUCING ICE PELLETS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AS THE DAY WEARS ON FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER COAST, SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH CIGS DIPPING BELOW 1000 FT PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND OR BELOW
3000 FT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH DROPS IN CIG AND VIS STILL WITH PASSING
SHOWERS. ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WIND CONCERNS UNTIL A STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: RESIDUAL WAVES OF 7 TO 9 FT WITH 9 TO 12 SEC PERIODS ARE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO MODERATE BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE SW. THE
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS
WINDS REMAIN LOW. THINGS START TO CHANGE AGAIN SUNDAY AS A STRONG
GALE TO STORM FORCE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION RAMPING UP WINDS
(TO STRONG GALE IN THE NORTHERN GULF) AND SEAS (UP TO 22 FT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF).
INSIDE: GENERALLY LOW (LESS THEN 20 KT) S WINDS FOR MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING. ONLY NORTHERN LYNN IS SHOWING ANYTHING STRONGER WITH
25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS BLOWING THERE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SUNDAY AS A GALE FORCE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. WIDE SPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS (25 TO 30
KT) ARE EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-053-643-644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAL
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