275
FXAK67 PAJK 041137
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
337 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE 12Z TAFS
SHORT TERM...RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A DECAYING LOW NEAR VALDEZ DISINTEGRATES ENTIRELY.
YAKUTAT MAY PROVE TO BE THE EXCEPTION, AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WORKING ITS WAY E FROM ICY BAY WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO YAKUTAT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS BROADLY IMPROVE FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY, WITH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BECOMING FAR MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
SITUATION SWIFTLY REVERSES SUNDAY NIGHT, AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM
FORCE LOW REACHING 979 MB ENTERS THE GULF. A PAIR OF FRONTS (A
WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT) ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BRING WITH
THEM WINDY CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WITH THE HEAVIEST WINDS AND RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS
OF HI-RES GUIDANCE, AND ANTICIPATE STORM FORCE WINDS TO REACH INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS NEAR KAYAK ISLAND.
THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED,
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR FLOODING THREATS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE AROUND YAKUTAT AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE NEAR ANNETTE ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN.
LONG TERM...THE LONG TERM FORECAST MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, CHANCES OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
SEND ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH HERE IN SE AK FOR THE
BULK OF THE PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE OCCASIONAL MVFR REPORT
POPS UP FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE BOUNCING BACK TO VFR. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE YAKUTAT AREA WHERE RAINY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, CAUSING MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, CONTINUED IMPROVING FLYING WEATHER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
STARTING THIS EVENING. LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED, BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST, THEN MOVING INLAND.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS WITH THIS FRONT. WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...THE 998 MB LOW NOW
CENTERED OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A GRADUAL LOWERING OF WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WATERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OUT TO 100 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON DUE TO 8 FT SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 6 FT. THE LULL
IN WIND AND SEAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS ON SUNDAY A
STRONGER 982 MB LOW MOVING TO NEAR KODIAK WILL SEND A GALE FORCE
TO NEAR STORM FORCE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. GALE
WARNINGS ARE NOW POSTED FOR SUNDAY AS THE WINDS WEST OF 140W
APPROACH 40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, AND SEAS BUILD TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 FT. WE DO EXPECT WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD
INCREASE TO STORM FORCE (48 KTS) JUST OFF KAYAK ISLAND AND ICY
BAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO NEAR 30 FT. IF THAT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON THE NEXT SET OF FORECAST ISSUANCE, THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS OFF ICY BAY AND KAYAK ISLAND MAY BE
UPGRADED TO A STORM WARNING BY LATE SUNDAY. MOST OF THE HIGHER
IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF 143W THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT AS WE
GET INTO MONDAY MORNING WE EXPECT WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS (GALE
FORCE) OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 90 NM GENERALLY NORTH OF CAPE DECISION.
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AT THIS TIME.
INNER CHANNELS AND INSIDE PASSAGE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA...OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10
TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR EAST FOR MOST INSIDE WATERS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BY PORTIONS OF UPPER LYNN CANAL WHERE
PERIODS OF 20 KTS SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED
NORTHWARD INTO TAIYA INLET. AS FOR THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM, IMPACTS OVER THE INSIDE WATERS OF SE ALASKA WILL BE A BIT
LESS COMPARED TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS, BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT
STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE STRONG FRONT
DISCUSSED IN THE OUTER WATERS SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. NO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN POSTED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AS WE GET INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY WE WOULD EXPECT (BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST
PROJECTIONS) THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSTED ON
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE BASED ON TIMING AND CRITERIA. SOME
OF THE MORE EXPOSED AREAS OF CHATHAM STRAIT, LYNN CANAL AND ICY
STRAIT MAY EVEN REACH INTO GALE WARNING CRITERIA BY MONDAY
MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE REFINED.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ327.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641>644-651-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>036-053.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...JG
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