021
FXAK67 PAJK 041435 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
504 AM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHORT TERM
RATHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SEVERAL
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS ALLOWED AT
LEAST ONE AREA TO COOL TO FREEZING (HOONAH) THIS MORNING.
THE CALM WEATHER WILL NOT LAST AS PRECIPITATION AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO START INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIDE SPREAD GALES EXPECTED
FOR THE GULF WATERS AND MANY INNER CHANNELS WILL HAVE 25 TO 30 KT
WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR RAINFALL, AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES IS
STILL THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECT MAY INCREASE THAT AMOUNT FOR A FEW
AREAS ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERALL OVERNIGHT WITH ANY CHANGES MAINLY
REFINING DETAILS TO WINDS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM FORECAST MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN, AS A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES
TO ENCOURAGE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY AS A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SEND ANOTHER WAVE INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH HERE IN SE AK FOR THE
BULK OF THE PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THE OCCASIONAL MVFR REPORT
POPS UP FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE BOUNCING BACK TO VFR. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE YAKUTAT AREA WHERE RAINY CONDITIONS
PERSIST, CAUSING MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, CONTINUED IMPROVING FLYING WEATHER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THIS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
STARTING THIS EVENING. LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED, BEGINNING FIRST ALONG THE COAST, THEN MOVING INLAND.
LLWS AND TURBULENCE WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS WITH THIS FRONT. WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING FOR COASTAL AREAS, AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS A STORM FORCE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
MIN STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NEAR CAPE SUCKLING
TONIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE GULF WILL BE DEALING WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT
GALES WILL BE DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WILL LAST
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE STARTING OUT
AROUND 6 TO 7 FT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE RAMPING UP TO OVER 20
FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 13 FT FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE REST OF THE GULF BY THIS EVENING. POST FRONT SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10 TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO HIGH SW SWELL.
INNER CHANNELS...WHILE WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LOW FOR MOST OF SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE MIN GALE FORCE DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS. NORTHERN LYNN MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHER
WINDS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS DUE TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE FINALLY FORCES THE WINDS INTO THAT AREA. WINDS
WILL START CALMING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO CANADA TAKING THE HIGHER WINDS WITH IT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ327.
STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641>644-651-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>036-053.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAL
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