273
FXAK67 PAJK 050006
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
406 PM AKDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SHORT TERM
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ONLY
A FEW MINOR CHANGES AS A STORM FORCE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
PANHANDLE.
WIDE SPREAD GALES EXPECTED FOR THE GULF WATERS AND MANY INNER
CHANNELS WILL HAVE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS BY LATE TONIGHT. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF. AS FOR RAINFALL, AROUND 1
TO 2 INCHES IS STILL THE EXPECTED AMOUNTS FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECT MAY INCREASE THAT AMOUNT FOR
A FEW AREAS ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES.
THE FRONT WILL DEPART THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND A CHANGEOVER TO CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS AS A RESULT. THE
VERTICALLY STACKED PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF BEFORE STALLING, RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW - AND THEREFORE
ABUNDANT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK.
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERALL WITH THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGES BEING THE STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN CROSS SOUND, WITH THE
FORECAST NOW CALLING FOR UP TO 30 KT OVERNIGHT. THE DURATION THAT
WIDESPREAD RAIN STAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WAS ALSO
LENGTHENED ON MONDAY, WITH OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF,
ENCOURAGING ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, ASSISTING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
AND THE CAPE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SEAK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER WAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. WINDS LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL JUMP INLAND WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST
IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY/
AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ALASKAN PANHANDLE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY SFC WINDS
AND LLWS MAGNITUDES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 45 KTS OUT OF A GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH, CIGS AND VISS WILL REDUCE DOWN TO WELL WITHIN THE MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY AS HEAVIER RAIN RATES AND LOWERED CLOUD CIGS MOVE
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS: A STORM FORCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MIN STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY NEAR CAPE SUCKLING AND FOR OUTER COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT TONIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE GULF WILL BE DEALING WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO OVER 20 FT IN THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 13 FT FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE REST OF
THE GULF BY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON BACK TO
20 TO 25 KT, BUT POST FRONT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 10
TO 12 FT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH SW SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS
DIMINISH TO 8 FT ON WEDNESDAY.
INNER CHANNELS...WINDS WILL BE RAPIDLY RAMPING UP THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE 25 TO 30
KT WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOCAL AREAS COULD SEE
REACH GALE FORCE DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS. NORTHERN
LYNN MAY NOT SEE THE HIGHER WINDS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN A
SOUTHERLY PUSH OF WINDS DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FINALLY FORCES THE
WINDS INTO THAT AREA. WINDS WILL START CALMING DOWN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO CANADA TAKING THE
HIGHER WINDS WITH IT, AND ON TUESDAY WILL HOVER AROUND FRESH
BREEZE (11 TO 16 KT).
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AKZ322.
STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ325.
STRONG WIND FROM 1 AM AKDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ327.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ652-671-672.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641>644-651-661>664.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>035-053.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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