186
FXAK67 PAJK 051303
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
503 AM AKDT MON MAY 5 2025
SHORT TERM
A STRONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVES W TO E ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER WINDS HAVE OBSERVED
MARINE WINDS UP TO MIN STORM FORCE FROM ICY BAY WESTWARD WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
WIND RETRIEVALS FROM OCEANSAT-2 EVEN CAPTURED SOME WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE JUST WEST OF KAYAK ISLAND AT ONE POINT. THOSE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE
FRONT MAKES LANDFALL. IN THE PANHANDLE, WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
INCREASE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH SEEN AT SITKA
AND HYDABURG ALREADY. WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT WINDS (25 TO 30
KT) IN THE INNER CHANNELS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LAND
AREAS AS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPROACHES. THESE WINDS WILL THEN
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH
GENERALLY CALMER CONDITIONS TONIGHT POST FRONT. FORECAST CHANGES
FOR WINDS WERE MINOR OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY LOCAL EFFECT BEING THE
MAIN CHANGES.
AS FOR RAINFALL, THAT HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT, BUT RATES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HEAVY. MOSTLY TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 0.1 INCHES PER HOUR, AND THAT IS MAINLY AT YAKUTAT IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECTED TOTAL RAINFALL HAS LARGELY REMAINED
UNCHANGED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY EXPECTED PANHANDLE WIDE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TODAY, MAINLY IN
THE MORNING FOR THE NORTH, WHILE THE SOUTH WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECT
MAY INCREASE THAT AMOUNT FOR A FEW AREAS ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE AS A COOLER AIR MASS
MOVES IN. EXPECTED QPF DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A RESULT, BUT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
FROM STRONGER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF,
ENCOURAGING ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SETS UP
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, ASSISTING TO KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
AND THE CAPE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SEAK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER WAVE
IN OUR DIRECTION. WINDS LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONT
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING WHERE THE LOW
WILL JUMP INLAND WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST
IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION
A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR WITH VIS REPORTS STILL ABOVE
6SM FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH ISOLATED VIS DOWN TO 4SM HAS
BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES. LLWS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO AN ISSUE
THIS MORNING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, THE WINDS AND LLWS WILL DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SHORTLY AFTERWARDS, THE RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
WELL. SO OVERALL, EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
MARINE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. SATELLITE WINDS HAVE OBSERVED WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MIN STORM FORCE FROM ICY BAY WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 15 FT HAVE BEEN SEEN AT THE CAPE EDGECOMBE
BUOY OVERNIGHT MOST OF THAT BEING WIND WAVE WHILE THERE IS A 2 FT
SW 17 SECOND SWELL IN THERE AS WELL. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING WINDS
AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE (DOWN TO 15 TO 25 KT AND 10 TO 12 FT
RESPECTIVELY) INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS INTO TUESDAY WILL PERSIST
AT AROUND 10 TO 12 FT DUE TO PERSISTENT W TO SW WINDS AROUND THE
LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF DIRECTING FRESH SWELL OF 10 SECOND
PERIODS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW.
INSIDE WATERS...INSIDE WATERS WINDS ARE JUST STARTING TO INCREASE
WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 BEING OBSERVED IN STEPHENS PASSAGE AND
CROSS SOUND SO FAR. MORE AREAS WILL SEE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS THROUGH
THE MORNING AS THE FRONT, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE, ADVANCES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. LYNN CANAL WILL BE ONE OF THE LAST PLACES TO SEE A
WIND INCREASE WHICH IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING THERE.
EXPECT A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH WITH MOST AREAS DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY LATE
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ323.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ327.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ328.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-031>035-053.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...EAL
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page