284
FXAK67 PAJK 052347
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT MON MAY 5 2025
SHORT TERM
A STRONG FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER THE
PANHANDLE FROM W TO E. THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED IN COASTAL REGIONS
THIS MORNING, EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS MAY STILL WITNESS STRONG
SUSTAINED BREEZES WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PASSES OVER. EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON TO GENERALLY MORE CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE NIGHT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH LESS THAN 1
INCH EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD STILL SEE SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM
STRONGER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. THE PARENT LOW WILL STALL IN THE
CENTRAL GULF, RESULTING IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF, ENCOURAGING ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE.
WHILE NOWHERE NEAR THE STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SEAK,
AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP, MOVING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FROM S TO N, AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PAST THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW
WILL FINALLY DEPART - MOVING OFF TO THE SE AS A RIDGE ADVANCES
FROM THE W, ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE POTENTIALLY SENDING UP ANOTHER
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
AS THE RIDGE REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, THERE IS AN EMERGING POSSIBILITY OF DRIER WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AN OCCLUDING FRONT IS ALMOST FINISHED
MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WHICH BROUGHT LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY
AND A PLETHORA OF LLWS EARLIER MONDAY. TONIGHT WE EXPECT MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS YOU MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE PANHANDLE WHERE VFR IS ALREADY BECOMING PREVALENT. THERE WILL
BE ONGOING -SHRA SO EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR, WHICH TAFS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS. ALONG THE COAST MVFR IS MORE LIKELY AS A SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER MOVES IN. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ON THE MENU
TONIGHT, SHELTERED SPOTS LIKE PAPG COULD SEE SOME BCFG AS WINDS
LIGHTEN UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A GALE FORCE FRONT PUSHED OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING, DECREASING WINDS DOWN TO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (17 TO
27 KTS) AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 TO 11 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS INTO TUESDAY WILL PERSIST AT 8 TO 10 FT DUE TO PERSISTENT
SW BREEZES AROUND THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF DIRECTING 6 TO 7 FT
SW SWELL OF 10 SECOND PERIODS INTO THE REGION.
INSIDE WATERS: ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST THROUGH N-S
CHANNELS AS A LOW STALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS ARE DECREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. MOST AREAS WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT BY
LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
DECREASE TO 2 TO 3 FT WHILE OCEAN ENTRANCES MAY SEE 6 TO 8 FT. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SHOWERS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS) THROUGH THE WEEK.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ327.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-031-033>036-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...ZTK
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