271
FXAK67 PAJK 061233
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
433 AM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-QUIET WEATHER DAY OVERALL.
-LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE.
-WIND SPEEDS DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
-NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY.
DETAILS:
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR SE AK. SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE, SO EXPECT TO SEE ON/OFF RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AREN'T LOOKING VERY
IMPRESSIVE FOR THE AREA. FOR NOW, EXPECTING UPWARDS OF A HALF INCH
FOR THE YAKUTAT AREA WITH UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR THE REST OF
SOUTHEAST. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS COULD GET UP TO HALF TO 3/4
AN INCH, BUT VALUES LIKE THIS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE, FOR THE
EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES, SO ABOUT A 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT, IT'S NOT A LOT OF RAIN FOR A RAINFOREST.
WIND SPEEDS ARE LOOKING MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY, THIS WAS A
CHANGE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS WERE LOWERED ABOUT
5 KTS BASED ON THE NBM, LATEST HI-RES MODELS, AND COMPARING THE
FORECAST TO OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE PANHANDLE. FELT COMFORTABLE
LOWERING WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LAND WINDS WERE DECREASED AS WELL TO AROUND 5
TO 15 MPH.
LONG TERM
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE GULF, ENCOURAGING ONSHORE FLOW TO
CONTINUE. WHILE NOWHERE NEAR THE STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SEAK,
AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THURSDAY WILL SEE A STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOP, MOVING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FROM S TO N, AND WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING WITH IT BREEZY
CONDITIONS. PAST THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE LOW
WILL FINALLY DEPART - MOVING OFF TO THE SE AS A RIDGE ADVANCES
FROM THE W, ALTHOUGH NOT BEFORE POTENTIALLY SENDING UP ANOTHER
ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
AS THE RIDGE REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TROUGH THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, THERE IS AN EMERGING POSSIBILITY OF DRIER WEATHER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF ARE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERNS THIS MORNING. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE MAINLY APPEARING
AROUND PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND KETCHIKAN WITH PETERSBURG
SUFFERING THE WORST OF IT WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE FOR
MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. OTHER AREAS ARE SEEING MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS THOUGH PASSING SHOWERS ARE LOWERING CONDITIONS DOWN TO
MVFR AT TIMES. ONCE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS MORNING,
THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN THE SHOWERS WHILE SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS
MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. WINDS MOSTLY
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: A GENERAL SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE REPORTED WIND SPEEDS EARLY THIS MORNING
AROUND AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS BUT GOING FORWARD, EXPECTING WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WAVE HEIGHTS INTO TUESDAY WILL PERSIST AT 8 TO 10 FT DUE TO
PERSISTENT S BREEZES AROUND THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF.
INSIDE WATERS: ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST THROUGH N-S
CHANNELS AS A LOW STALLS IN THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS DECREASED
AFTER THE FRONT LEFT THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY AND TONIGHT,
MOSTLY A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
ISOLATED HIGH-END WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GJS
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