720
FXAK67 PAJK 062321
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
321 PM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SHORT TERM
KEY POINTS:
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE.
- SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND PANHANDLE CAN BRING TIMES GRAUPEL
AND A FEW LIGHTENING STRIKES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- WINDS REMAIN AROUND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES UNTIL INCREASING
TOMORROW EVENING.
DETAILS:
A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BRING TIMES OF RAIN
SHOWERS TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BRING STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AND GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS TO SOME AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. REPORTS OF GRAUPEL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE COAST NEAR SITKA TO
YAKUTAT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (5 TO 15 KTS) IN
AND ALONG THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THAT TIME,
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE THE NORTH TO SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, AND THE
SKAGWAY AREA. WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH BREEZES
(20 KTS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM
A ROSSBY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER
THE END OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE NORTH AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL, AND THEN SOUTHEASTERN GULF, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE LOW LOCATION, EXPECTING DEEP MOISTURE
TO ALSO BE SHUNTED SOUTH, BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT WE COULD SHEAR OFF SOME
DEEPER IVT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHILE NOT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT, COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP ALONG THE COAST TO STRONG
BREEZES, DRIVING 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. BY SUNDAY A HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GULF, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG COASTAL ZONES.
AVIATION
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD LOW CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE GULF OF ALASKA.
WHILE VFR REMAINS PREVALENT, THESE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. FURTHERMORE, SMALL GRAUPEL/ICE-PELLETS ARE ALSO LIKELY
WITH RA TO +RA, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL GRAUPEL/ICE-
PELLETS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ERRATIC AND GUSTY AS
CELLS MOVE OVER, EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR FOLKS NAVIGATING THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECTING
BCFG FOR SHELTERED AREAS LIKE PETERSBURG.
MARINE
MODERATE BREEZES ALONG THE GULF AND INSIDE WATERS
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
WILL THEN INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES (20 TO 25
KTS). TONIGHT, WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 8 FT, WITH A SOUTHWEST SWELL,
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 6 FT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, A FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. WITH THESE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...EAB
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