234
FXAK67 PAJK 071215
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 AM AKDT WED MAY 7 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY OVERALL.
-LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE.
-WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE.
-NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY MAY.
DETAILS: LINGERING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE.
THAT BEING SAID, SKAGWAY WILL HAVE SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
A ROSSBY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVER THE END OF THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. EXPECT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE NORTH AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL, AND THEN SOUTHEASTERN GULF, THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE LOW LOCATION, EXPECTING DEEP MOISTURE TO
ALSO BE SHUNTED SOUTH, BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT WE COULD SHEAR OFF SOME
DEEPER IVT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHILE NOT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT, COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN UP ALONG THE COAST TO STRONG
BREEZES, DRIVING 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. BY SUNDAY A HIGH MOVES INTO THE
GULF, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG COASTAL ZONES.
AVIATION
AVIATION WEATHER IS RATHER QUIET WITH ONLY SHOWERS
OCCASIONALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND/OR VIS TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR CEILINGS. THESE MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LOW WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS. FREEZING LEVELS RANGE
FROM AROUND 1500 FT IN THE NORTH TO 2500 FT IN THE SOUTH WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OUTSIDE DIURNAL CHANGES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: CALMER SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AT AROUND 5 TO 15
KNOTS, STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
COAST BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES
NORTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH
THOSE STRONGER SOUTH WINDS LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
INSIDE WATERS: INNER CHANNELS TODAY WILL BE MORE-OR-LESS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE EARLY
MORNING EXCEPTION IS LYNN CANAL WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND 20
KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD CALM TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT, WIND SPEEDS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT WITH THOSE HIGHER WINDS LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GJS
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