693
FXAK67 PAJK 081156
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 8 2025
SHORT TERM
A LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA/NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM PETERSBURG SOUTHWARD. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY BRINGING MORE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE. A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE AND WIND TO THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
OVERALL SYNOPSIS IS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE FRONTS
MOVING UP ALONG THE PARENT LOW. AFTER WHICH, THE MAIN TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO DIG DOWN SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII IN THE LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, DRYING UP MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
FOR FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING
A ROUND OF STRONG BREEZES TO POSSIBLY NEAR GALES ALONG THE OUTER
COAST. WHILE THE FILLING LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, RIDGING IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SAID RIDGING WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ON THE ONSET OF THE FRONT, EXPECT TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
SATURDAY LOOKS INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN, WITH TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
FALLING OUT OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION, AT
AROUND 65% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE, HAS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGGING
FURTHER SOUTH, AND EASTWARD SLOWER, WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PANHANDLE. WITH THIS SOLUTION, STRONGER SHORTWAVES ARE
MOVING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH IS FURTHER REPRESENTED BY
THE SHIFT OF TAILS IN THE QPF EFI. UNFORTUNATELY, LIKE THE OVERALL
PATTERN, THE CONSENSUS WITHIN THE EPS IS BARELY 50-60% FOR
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE. THE LESS LIKELY SOLUTION, BUT THE LESS
IMPACTFUL ONE, WOULD BE THE TROUGH WOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE,
PUSHING MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA FASTER, AND KEEPING THE MARINE
FORECAST RELATIVELY BENIGN.
REGARDLESS OF EITHER SOLUTION, LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES
A BROAD RIDGE TO SE UP OVER THE PANHANDLE, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES.
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER SE AK.
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, OVERALL TREND WILL BE LOW-END VFR TO
HIGH-END MVFR. DURING BRIEF TIMES WHEN A HEAVIER SHOWER TRACKS
THROUGH, LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
IMPROVING AS THE HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES ON.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER
FURTHER INTO MVFR WITH CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET AND VIS DOWN
TO 4SM. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
LLWS IS ALSO A HIGH POSSIBILITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES NORTH. THE PROBABILITY FOR LLWS >20KT
STARTS TO GET ABOVE 70% AROUND 06Z TO 09Z IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. BY 12Z, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND HAVE
LLWS PROBABILITY GREATER THAN 70%. AFTERWARDS, THE LLWS SPREADS
NORTHWARD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE OUTER COAST THIS
MORNING REMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY BRINGING
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. A
SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING BRINGING
A SECONDARY WAVE OF WINDS CLOSER TO 25 TO 30 KT TOMORROW. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 FT BEFORE BUILDING FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TO AROUND 10 FT.
INSIDE WATERS: LIGHT WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS IN
CLARENCE STRAIT TO AROUND 20 KTS. A LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTH
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WATERS INCREASED AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. AT THIS TIME, ISOLATED GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE LOCATED OVER CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF
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