378
FXAK67 PAJK 091202
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 AM AKDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SHORT TERM
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING WHILE RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE
NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING BRINGING A
REINFORCING WAVE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
LONG TERM
MUCH BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING
TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN RATES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SATURDAY WILL SEE THE FINAL OF MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF. AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL
BE NEAR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, AND PUSH INTO THE YUKON OVER THE
MORNING HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY,
WITH RAIN RATES MAXIMIZING AROUND 0.1 INCHES PER HOUR. SOUTHERLY
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY AT AROUND A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN
THE VERY EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY. BEHIND THE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD
IS A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE EAST SLOWLY OVER THE COURSE OF SATURDAY. IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUITE RAPIDLY.
GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS
PETERSBURG DOWN TO HYDABURG, BUT SOME SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING THE
MOISTURE TAP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WELL INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE DYNAMICS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK TO SUPPORT HEAVIER
RAINFALL BEYOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LINGERING RAIN IN THE AREA MAY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE FIRST DAY IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH WIDESPREAD
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, SO AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
LIKELY SEE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 60 DEGREES.
FOR MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO COME RACING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING
SEA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EXTEND A FAST MOVING FRONT OVER
THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING WINDS HIGHER THAN A FRESH BREEZE, MAINLY FOR THE ICY
STRAIT AREA AND NORTH. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE THE QUICKLY
DROPPING PRESSURE IN NORTHERN B.C. AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT COULD BRING UP TO STRONGER WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS TO NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL, TAIYA INLET, AND SKAGWAY. .
AVIATION
AS THE NEXT WAVE OF RAIN MOVES NORTH, MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE TODAY WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS LASTING WELL INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE LLWS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BUT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTH, ANOTHER ROUND OF
LLWS WILL SPREAD NORTH FOR TONIGHT AND COULD LAST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP THIS
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR WINDS REACHING UP TO NEAR GALES
FOR THE OUTER COAST. ESPECIALLY FOR PLACES THAT SEE GAP WINDS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AS WELL IN THE SAME AREAS WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 10 FT
WHILE FARTHER NORTH, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 8 FT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OUTSIDE
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
INSIDE WATERS: WINDS THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE FEW EXCEPTIONS OF CLARENCE STRAIT AND
EAST/WEST ORIENTED LOCATIONS SUCH AS CAPE SPENCER AND SCULL
ISLAND. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
GETTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT FOR THE INNER CHANNELS. MOST PLACES
WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CLARENCE STRAIT AS WELL AS PARTS OF STEPHENS PASSAGE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>036-641>644-651-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...SF
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