206
FXAK67 PAJK 161731
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
931 AM AKDT FRI MAY 16 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM
MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING NORTH.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE KEEPING LINGERING RAIN SEEMINGLY
INDEFINITELY, BUT EXPECT RAIN TO STICK AROUND ONLY FOR TODAY.
SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN OVERCAST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY, AS A STRONG
TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO CONUS. THIS WILL LEAVE VERY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT, LEAVING NOTHING TO DRIVE OUT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONT PAST THE PANHANDLE, WINDS WILL BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND, LEAVING AVIATION CONCERNS FOR LOW CLOUDS, BUT
LITTLE CONCERN FOR THOSE NEAR SEA LEVEL.
LONG TERM
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE. THIS BREAK COMES TO AN END AS A LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STALLING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POW. THE FOCUS
OF THIS LOW WILL BE WINDS INCREASING NEAR HAIDA GWAII INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT. NEAR GALE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THIS LOW WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
REMAIN BELOW AN INCH WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING LESS THAN A 60% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IN 24
HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. DURING
THIS TIME, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE REMAINS DRY WITH
WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 TO 15 KTS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS SHOW
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW EITHER MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH, OR
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. IF THE LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH, MORE OF THE PANHANDLE COULD RECEIVE RAIN. AFTER THE LOW
DISSIPATES, LIGHT RAIN WITH BREAKS, WILL CONTINUE INTO MID TO LATE
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
QUICK MOVING LOW IS ZIPPING NORTH ALONG THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS THE PANHANDLE TRANSITIONS TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW, THE AREA WILL SEE ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, RIDGING
BUILDS OVER SE AK WHICH SHOULD LIFT AVIATION FLYING CONDITIONS.
SO FOR THE FORECAST, MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AROUND THE
AREA TODAY. SOME ISOLATED LOWER CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED BUT
THESE SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CONTINUED IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS.
SOME ISOLATED LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, DUE TO THAT QUICK MOVING LOW. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE HINTING AT 40% TO 60% PROBABILITIES OF LLWS >20KT IN ICY
STRAIT, GLACIER BAY, AND AROUND JUNEAU WITH THOSE PROBABILITIES
MOVING NORTH INTO LYNN CANAL LATER THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, BY
22Z, THE PROBABILITIES DROP BELOW 20% WITH BELOW 10% PROBABILITIES
BY 00Z. NO LLWS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SEE THE TRENDING DOWN
OF WINDS IN THE OUTER GULF, AND WITH IT, SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
SURFACE RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE WINDS
IN THE INNER CHANNELS, WILL CREATE A SPLIT FLOW IN THE GULF, WITH
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES NEAR PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, AND SOUTHWEST LIGHT BREEZES NEAR THE NE GULF COAST GOING
INTO TOMORROW.
INSIDE: A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IMPACTING
LYNN CANAL, CHATHAM STRAIT AND CLARENCE FRIDAY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE POST FRONTAL RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING LONG LASTING ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS, AS
DIVERGENT SURFACE FLOW IN THE GULF WILL LARGELY LEAVE LIGHT AIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER WATERS TONIGHT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...NC
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