973
FXAK67 PAJK 232311
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
311 PM AKDT MON JUN 23 2025
..AFTERNOON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
PANHANDLE TO START THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BEING ON THE TABLE
FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING, LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR
OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM
MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF HAIDA GWAII
WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, GIVING A
GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, SEA BREEZES WILL BE WEAKER AND
LESS IMPACTFUL THAN SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS. ONCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MONDAY,
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KT, WITH MANY AREAS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TUESDAY. OVERALL A
RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WILL BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND BRING UP WINDS BRIEFLY.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/..
WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF,
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE PANHANDLE.
THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THE TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK OF COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO LAST AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE
STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS
FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING TO SEE QPF PROBABILITIES
OF AROUND 60% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, AND ON SUNDAY
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 65% OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES IN 24
HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET
TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND
WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK
ISLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH
DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT AS WEAK FRONT STALLS OVER THE
AREA. LONE AREA OF VFR CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TAF SITES LIKE SKAGWAY AND HAINES. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING,
PREDOMINANT MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WITH CIGS REMAINING AOB
2500FT AND POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISBYS BY 12Z. IFR TO LIFR CIGS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT, AOB 800FT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE OUTER
COAST AND S PANHANDLE TAF SITES. PRECIPITATION WILL START AT
YAKUTAT BY 06Z TUESDAY, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE SITES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MID-MORNING, LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15KTS OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES LIKE SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WHICH COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS, GOING VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: NO CHANGES TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS FORECAST WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, MOSTLY EXPECTING 5 TO 15 KNOT WIND
AT VARIOUS DIRECTIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK, WHEN A MORE
ORGANIZED FRONT IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD BRING WEST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN OVER THE PANHANDLE LEAD TO
LIMITED INCREASES IN WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. TWO EXCEPTIONS: LYNN CANAL, FROM
ELDRED ROCK NORTHWARD TO SEE 20 KT WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND CLARENCE STRAIT, AROUND 15 KNOTS ALSO
DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
A BRIEF BUMP IN WINDS TUESDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN LATER IN THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS COME TO A CLOSE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE CHILKAT
RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10PM WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CREST HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
UNTIL THE CHILKAT RIVER FALLS OUT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...NM
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