254
FXAK67 PAJK 240601
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1001 PM AKDT MON JUN 23 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HAS PUSHED INTO THE
PANHANDLE TO START THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING CLOUD
COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BEING ON THE TABLE
FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING, LEADING TO MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR
OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM
MOUNTAINS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF HAIDA GWAII
WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, GIVING A
GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, SEA BREEZES WILL BE WEAKER AND
LESS IMPACTFUL THAN SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS. ONCE WINDS IN LYNN CANAL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT MONDAY,
WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KT, WITH MANY AREAS BEING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TUESDAY. OVERALL A
RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WHICH WILL BRING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TUESDAY AND BRING UP WINDS BRIEFLY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/..
WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF,
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE PANHANDLE.
THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THE TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK OF COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO LAST AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE
STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS
FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING TO SEE QPF PROBABILITIES
OF AROUND 60% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, AND ON SUNDAY
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 65% OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES IN 24
HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET
TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND
WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK
ISLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH
DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FT DUE TO A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AROUND MVFR WITH SOME LOCATIONS
DROPPING TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE AREA TO HAVE
CEILINGS DROP BELOW 1000 FT AND EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN MVFR WITH ISOLATED TIMES OF IFR
POSSIBLE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
SKAGWAY AND HAINES CONTINUE TO HAVE VFR CEILINGS WITH ELEVATED
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IN HAINES. THESE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
TOMORROW. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, CEILINGS IN
SKAGWAY AND HAINES WILL HAVE A CLOUD DECK AROUND 2500 FT. THIS
WILL CREATE TIMES OF MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. AS WIND SPEEDS START
TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE, CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RAISE TO VFR.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHES THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2500 FT.
COASTAL AREAS AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE TIMES
OF IFR CEILINGS AS THE SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: NO CHANGES TO THE OUTSIDE WATERS FORECAST WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GENERAL WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY AROUND 4-6 FT ACROSS THE GULF
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, MOSTLY EXPECTING 5 TO 15 KNOT WIND
AT VARIOUS DIRECTIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK, WHEN A MORE
ORGANIZED FRONT IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD BRING WEST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN OVER THE PANHANDLE LEAD TO
LIMITED INCREASES IN WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. TWO EXCEPTIONS: LYNN CANAL, FROM
ELDRED ROCK NORTHWARD TO SEE 20 KT WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE EVENING, AND CLARENCE STRAIT, AROUND 15 KNOTS ALSO
DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
A BRIEF BUMP IN WINDS TUESDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
IN LATER IN THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY...
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS COME TO A CLOSE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE CHILKAT
RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10PM WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CREST HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
UNTIL THE CHILKAT RIVER FALLS OUT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...NM
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