960
FXAK67 PAJK 241310
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
510 AM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SHORT TERM
SOMEWHAT BENIGN WEATHER WITH A FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WITH A MOISTURE RICH
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE TODAY. THE
MAIN CHANGES COME FROM THE WEAK TROUGH PUSHING OVER THE PANHANDLE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, PARTICULARLY ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAINS
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE PANHANDLE. NOT LOOKING ALMOST ANY WIND ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH, WHICH WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD MIST WITH LOWER
VISIBILITIES PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM
/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/..
WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF,
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE PANHANDLE.
THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THE TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK OF COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO LAST AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE
STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS
FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING TO SEE QPF PROBABILITIES
OF AROUND 60% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, AND ON SUNDAY
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 65% OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES IN 24
HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET
TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND
WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK
ISLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH
DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
UNFORTUNATE FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS MVFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT MOSTLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LOOK TO
DETERIORATE LATER TODAY. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY WITH
HEIGHTS AOA 1500 FT, AND JUST OFFSHORE OF YAKUTAT, SITKA, AND
KLAWOCK, WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS AND VIS. THESE
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN MOVE INLAND ALONG WITH THE TROUGH AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE, ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 2-3 SM IN RAIN AND
MIST. WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE OR ALOFT WIND EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT LOW CLOUDS OR MISTY CONDITIONS, WENT SLIGHTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC, PARTICULARLY THE COASTAL TAF SITES.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: NO CHANGE IN MESSAGE TO THE OUTER WATERS FORECAST,
STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. LOW VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
1 MILE ARE A CONCERN FOR THE OUTER WATERS, MAINLY EAST OF YAKUTAT,
ALONG THE COASTLINE. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, MOSTLY
EXPECTING 5 TO 15 KNOT WIND AT VARIOUS DIRECTIONS UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEK, WHEN A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD BRING
WEST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES LOOK TO PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLE, LAX PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM WIDESPREAD TROUGHING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. ONE PROBLEM AREA FOR THE
INNER WATERS IS HOW STRONG LYNN CANAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.
CURRENTLY, ELDRED ROCK IS AROUND 17 KNOTS, BUT JUNEAU IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A DROP IN PRESSURE, PUTTING IT MORE INLINE
WITH NORTHERN COMMUNITIES. AS THERE IS A LACK OF LEESIDE TROUGHING
IN HAINES AND SKAGWAY, EXPECTING THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN LYNN
CANAL THIS MORNING TO A MAXIMUM OF 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND MISTY CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY CAUSE
VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR OUR MARINE COMMUNITY TODAY, DOWN TO 2-3
MILES OVER WATER.
HYDROLOGY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS COME TO A CLOSE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE CHILKAT
RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK, THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO 10PM WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL CREST HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
UNTIL THE CHILKAT RIVER FALLS OUT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NM
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