737
FXAK67 PAJK 242316
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
316 PM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WET BUT NOT
SO WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OVERALL LOOKING AT PRECIP TOTALS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MANY AREAS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
ONLY AREA WITH NOTEWORTHY WIND WILL BE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ONCE
MORE AROUND TAIYA INLET AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INLAND WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS MIDWEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WHAT TO EXPECT HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/..
THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY
OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUES THE TREND OF COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
IN THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
LIGHT, SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN
THE BERING SEA, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE EVENING.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE
FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE
WHOLE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
BUT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN
0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO
FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE
THE MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QPF PROBABILITIES HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY, WITH A
HIGHER 70-80% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO CHANGED TO SHOW US NOW LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH ONLY AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE. FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, QPF
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE ONLY AROUND 40%.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BY THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS.
THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN
CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK ISLAND AREA ALONG THE
COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
/00Z WEDNESDAY - 00Z THURSDAY/ CEILINGS LIFTED SOME
THROUGH THE DAY, EVEN WITH SOME BREAKS SEEN ON WEBCAMS OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND PAYA. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA HAS SEEN A FRONTAL TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWARD
OVERHEAD WITH A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS, BRINGING CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR...OCCASIONALLY IFR CIGS IN THE EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX OUT SOME LOW CONDITIONS AND
CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS (<10KT), THEN GO BACK DOWN AGAIN WHEN THE
SHOWERS ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH, THUS TEMPOS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NEEDED. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO PAPG/PASI BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY (IFR CIG
POSSIBLE), THEN TRACKS UP TO PAJN IN THE LATE EVENING AND
CONTINUING ON TO PAYA, PAHN, AND PAGY OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL TROUGH, EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BRIEFLY BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS AND THE BREAKS
COULD INDUCE PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, MOSTLY EXPECTING 5 TO 15 KNOT WIND
AT VARIOUS DIRECTIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK, WHEN A MORE
ORGANIZED FRONT IS LIKELY AND WOULD BRING EAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM WIDESPREAD
TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. CURRENTLY, ELDRED
ROCK IS AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SKAGWAY AND TAIYA INLET CLOSER TO 15
KT. EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECT WINDS IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE UP TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INLAND TO THE
YUKON. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND MISTY CONDITIONS,
WHICH MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY, DOWN
TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES OVER WATER.
HYDROLOGY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE COME TO A CLOSE WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CHILKAT RIVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IS FALLING AT A FAIRLY STEADY RATE, BUT MAY
STILL STAIR-STEP DOWN WITH SOME RAIN MOVING IN, THEN SHOULD BE
BELOW 126FT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RFC REPORTS THAT THEIR RIVER
MODELS SHOW A FASTER DROP AND THUS THE ADVISORY MAY END EARLIER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...FERRIN
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