924
FXAK67 PAJK 250621 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1021 PM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..EVENING UPDATE AND 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST OF MANY
WEAK SHORTWAVE FRONTS PUSH UP THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, WITH
MULTIPLE WEAK MESO-CYCLONES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE
COAST. MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS ADJUST WIND SPEEDS UPWARD TO
15KTS FOR NORTHERN LYNN, PARTICULARLY ELDRED ROCK UP TO TAIYA
INLET AND GENERAL WIND DIRECTIONS FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT WIND DIRECTIONS WITH THESE MESO-LOWS ALONG
THE COAST, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, NEAR 10KTS OR LESS.
ANTICIPATING GENERAL TRENDS TO REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WET BUT NOT SO WINDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A WEAK CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF HAIDA GWAII WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
OVERALL LOOKING AT PRECIP TOTALS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MANY AREAS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES. ONLY AREA
WITH NOTEWORTHY WIND WILL BE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL ONCE MORE AROUND
TAIYA INLET AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INLAND WEDNESDAY.
PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS MIDWEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WHAT TO EXPECT HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY
OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUES THE TREND OF COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE
60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR LIGHT, SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE EVENING. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE
MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QPF PROBABILITIES HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY, WITH A
HIGHER 70-80% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO CHANGED TO SHOW US NOW LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH ONLY AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE. FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, QPF
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE ONLY AROUND 40%.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BY THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS.
THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN
CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK ISLAND AREA ALONG THE
COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR OR WORSE ACROSS COASTAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT AND VISBYS
DROPPING AS LOW AS 1 TO 3SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS FOR JUNEAU, SKAGWAY, AND HAINES
WILL DETERIORATE TOMORROW MORNING DOWN TO PREDOMINANT MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE. IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS AOB 800FT BY 11 TO 15Z WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR COASTAL
PANHANDLE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT, REBOUNDING TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS LIKE SKAGWAY AND HAINES, WHICH COULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO 15KTS GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, MOSTLY EXPECTING 5 TO 15 KNOT WIND
AT VARIOUS DIRECTIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK, WHEN A MORE
ORGANIZED FRONT IS LIKELY AND WOULD BRING EAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE
THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM WIDESPREAD
TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. CURRENTLY, ELDRED
ROCK IS AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SKAGWAY AND TAIYA INLET CLOSER TO 15
KT. EXPECT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
EXPECT WINDS IN THIS AREA TO INCREASE UP TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INLAND TO THE
YUKON. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND MISTY CONDITIONS,
WHICH MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY, DOWN
TO 2-3 MILES AT TIMES OVER WATER.
HYDROLOGY
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE COME TO A CLOSE WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY. THE CHILKAT RIVER REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS OF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IS FALLING AT A FAIRLY STEADY RATE, BUT MAY
STILL STAIR-STEP DOWN WITH SOME RAIN MOVING IN, THEN SHOULD BE
BELOW 126FT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RFC REPORTS THAT THEIR RIVER
MODELS SHOW A FASTER DROP AND THUS THE ADVISORY MAY END EARLIER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....CONTINO
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...FERRIN
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