111
FXAK67 PAJK 251248
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
448 AM AKDT WED JUN 25 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH TODAY, BRINGING DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BUT
AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT, CHANCES INCREASE BEGINNING
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
-LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN THE AREA WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
LATER TODAY.
-WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
-NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR LATE JUNE.
DETAILS:
500MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH TODAY. AS IT DOES, THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. BUT AS THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL GIVE ELEVATED WINDS TO N/S ORIENTED MARINE AREAS, UPWARDS OF
15 KNOTS THOUGH SOME MODELS GIVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
TONIGHT, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OVERALL, WEDNESDAY (TODAY) IS LOOKING TO PLAY OUT AS ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY.
LONG TERM
THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY
OF THE WEEK, CONTINUING THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUES THE TREND OF COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE
60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR LIGHT, SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LAST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING
SEA, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE EVENING. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE
PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE
MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
QPF PROBABILITIES HAVE CHANGED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY, WITH A
HIGHER 70-80% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO CHANGED TO SHOW US NOW LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS WITH ONLY AROUND A 30-40% CHANCE. FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, QPF
PROBABILITIES OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ARE ONLY AROUND 40%.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF BY THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS.
THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET TO AFFECT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE
PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN
CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK ISLAND AREA ALONG THE
COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
IT IS A MIXED BAG OF FLYING CONDITIONS AROUND SE AK
THIS MORNING. WHILE LOW-END MVFR IS THE MOST REPORTED, SOME AREAS
ARE DOWN TO LIFR DUE TO CIGS DROPPING TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET. BUT
EVERY ONCE IN AWHILE, SKIES CLEAR UP JUST ENOUGH TO GET CIGS UP TO
3500 TO 4000 FEET BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. SO BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
RANGE OF FLYING CONDITIONS, AND THE BIG SWINGS FROM ONE CATEGORY
TO ANOTHER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECTING THESE BIG SWINGS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND, AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVERHEAD TRACKS NORTH
OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND A BRIEF AND WEAK RIDGE BUILDS TONIGHT,
FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY IN
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, REACHING THE ICY STRAIT AREA MAINLY AFTER
03Z THURSDAY.
THE IMPROVED CONDITIONS WON'T LAST LONG AS FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS STILL LOOKING AT A LIGHT WESTERLY,
SWINGING SOUTH, WIND TODAY AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS
UP TO 5 FT. LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLE, BRINGING SE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
GULF. AS THE FRONT TRACKS INLAND FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SPEEDS LIKE THAT LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE WATERS: IT'S A WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER OUT THERE IN THE INNER
CHANNELS THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM LIGHT WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. AS FAR AS VISIBILITY
IS CONCERNED, BASED ON LOCAL AREA WEBCAMS, AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND HAS A BIT OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN,
LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG.
LOOKING AHEAD, VISIBILITY SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING FOR
THOSE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING THE THICK FOG. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY. THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TODAY THAT WILL ZIP SOUTH-TO-NORTH, GIVING SOME TIMES OF
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN LYNN CANAL, STEPHEN'S
PASSAGE, CLARENCE STRAIT, AND NEAR POINT COUVERDEN. WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
MAIN HYDROLOGY CONCERN IS STILL CENTERED AROUND THE
CHILKAT RIVER IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FLOODING IS ONGOING AS
OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE RIVER LEVEL HAS BEEN
DROPPING SINCE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA,
WHICH HAS SLOWED THE FALL OF THE RIVER AND EVEN CAUSED THE RIVER
TO TURN AROUND AND START RISING AGAIN. WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FLOOD
ADVISORY ACTIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, THE
REPORTED RIVER LEVEL IS VERY CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE (WITH
0.10 OF A FOOT). WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IF THE RIVER LEVEL
DROPS TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE, AND IS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW FLOOD
STAGE, THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GJS
HYDROLOGY...GJS
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