467
FXAK67 PAJK 252345
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2025
SHORT TERM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SLIGHTLY ONSHORE
FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
STREAMING OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS A LOW ENTERS THE
WESTERN GULF AND EXTENDS A FRONT TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS IN
THE GULF WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES THURSDAY, WITH SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.
OVERALL LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SLACKENING OF WINDS OVERALL IN
THE INNER CHANNELS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE MORE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A COLD UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL TREND FOR THE FORECAST UNDER THIS PATTERN IS WET, COOL,
AND CLOUDY. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE TRUE FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND AS A FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
CURRENTLY, NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS FOR ANY ABNORMALLY WET OR WINDY
WEATHER, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS FIRST THE PRIMARY FRONT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN TOTAL FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD THOUGH AGAIN NOTHING
VERY SIGNIFICANT. EXPECTING AROUND 20 KT FOR MAX WINDS IN THE
GULF AS EACH OF THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. INNER CHANNELS WINDS
WERE RAISED A LITTLE TO AROUND 15 KT (20 KT IN CLARENCE STRAIT)
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE ALASKA
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY FORMING A REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
STATE. FOR SE, HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS IN THE GULF AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE GENERAL TREND IS STILL DAMP FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
CONTINUING TO SEE A MIXED BAG OF FLYING CONDITIONS
AROUND SE AK. MOST AREAS ARE SEEING LOW-END MVFR, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS ARE DOWN TO IFR WITH CIGS DROPPING TO BELOW 1000 FEET
AND VIS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 4SM DUE TO THE RAIN AND BR. SHORT TIMES
OF LIFR ARE EXPECTED AS BANDS OF RAIN MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE
TREND OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. TOMORROW MORNING, THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE
WILL HAVE SLIGHT BREAK, WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS, ALLOWING FOR
CEILINGS TO RAISE TO VFR AROUND 3500 TO 6000 FT. THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY MVFR WITH CEILINGS REMAINING
BELOW 2500 FT.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN LIGHT, EXPECT FOR OUR NORMAL WINDY
SPOT AROUND SKAGWAY. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
WILL CONTINUE, SLIGHTLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THE LONGER WINDS
STAY ELEVATED IN SKAGWAY, THE LONGER VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE AREA. WHEN WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT, IT WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO ENTER SKAGWAY BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS HAVE SWUNG TO THE SOUTH, WITH THE
CENTRAL GULF BUOY REPORTING AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE UP TO 6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING SE WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE GULF. AS THE FRONT TRACKS
INLAND FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SPEEDS LIKE THAT LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE WATERS: WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM LIGHT WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL WITH ELDRED ROCK SPORTING 21 KT SUSTAINED AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ICY STRAIT TRANSITIONING
EASTERLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF AND APPROACHES
THE PANHANDLE. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL REMAIN, WITH MIST AND FOG LIKELY TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ONCE MORE THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page