024
FXAK67 PAJK 260550 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
950 PM AKDT WED JUN 25 2025
..EVENING UPDATE AND 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
ONLY A MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS WE
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW OVERSPREADING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. ADJUSTED WINDS AND INCREASED AROUND
SISTERS ISLAND, ROCKY ISLAND, AND ELDRED ROCK AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
STAYED ELEVATED NEAR 15 KTS FOR A BIT LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THROUGH THURSDAY, INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. WITH THE NEXT
FRONT, HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST TREND REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE CONTINUING
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH SLIGHTLY ONSHORE
FLOW ALOFT HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
STREAMING OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS WEDNESDAY. THROUGH TONIGHT,
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY AS A LOW ENTERS THE
WESTERN GULF AND EXTENDS A FRONT TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS IN
THE GULF WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES THURSDAY, WITH SEAS SLOWLY BUILDING WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.
OVERALL LOOKING AT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SLACKENING OF WINDS OVERALL IN
THE INNER CHANNELS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT ANY SEA
BREEZE POTENTIAL ONCE MORE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60, AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE STATE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A COLD UPPER
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
GENERAL TREND FOR THE FORECAST UNDER THIS PATTERN IS WET, COOL,
AND CLOUDY. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE TRUE FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND AS A FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME.
CURRENTLY, NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNALS FOR ANY ABNORMALLY WET OR WINDY
WEATHER, BUT THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS FIRST THE PRIMARY FRONT MOVES IN ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN TOTAL FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD THOUGH AGAIN NOTHING
VERY SIGNIFICANT. EXPECTING AROUND 20 KT FOR MAX WINDS IN THE
GULF AS EACH OF THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH. INNER CHANNELS WINDS
WERE RAISED A LITTLE TO AROUND 15 KT (20 KT IN CLARENCE STRAIT)
ESPECIALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE ALASKA
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY FORMING A REX TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
STATE. FOR SE, HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS IN THE GULF AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING UP FROM THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE
AREA. OTHERWISE THE GENERAL TREND IS STILL DAMP FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH POSSIBLE DRYING CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GULF,
BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE PANHANDLE.
THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES THE TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK OF COOLER
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO IN THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
CONTINUE TO LAST AS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND A SURFACE
LOW IN THE BERING SEA. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BRINGING A MORE
STRUCTURED FRONT TO THE WHOLE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING UP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN BUT WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT, WITH QPF AMOUNTS
FRIDAY BEING BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES EVERY 6 HOURS DURING THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE COASTLINE AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE MOST QPF SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL CONTINUING TO SEE QPF PROBABILITIES
OF AROUND 60% CHANCE OF OVER 0.3 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, AND ON SUNDAY
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 65% OF GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES IN 24
HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. THE FAR NORTHERN COAST STILL APPEARS TO
HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL JET
TO AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES THROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND
WILL LAST LONGER BETWEEN CAPE FAIRWEATHER UP THROUGH THE KAYAK
ISLAND AREA ALONG THE COASTLINE. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING UP THROUGH
DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT WILL ALSO INCREASE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS PUSHING UP INTO
CLARENCE STRAIT.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS MVFR OR WORSE ACROSS COASTAL,
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH CIGS AOB 3500FT WITH VISBYS
DROPPING AS LOW AS 2 TO 4SM. THROUGH TONIGHT, ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SIMILARITIES TO YESTERDAY EVENING,
PREDOMINANT MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WITH IFR TO LIFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AOB 1000FT
BY 10 TO 15Z WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TAF SITES. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ONCE MORE BY
THURSDAY MID MORNING WITH CIGS AOB 2500FT, WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT INTO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS DROP ONCE MORE BY THURSDAY EVENING
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN PANHANDLE TAF SITES
LIKE HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND JUNEAU.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT, REBOUNDING TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN SKAGWAY AND KETCHIKAN
TOMORROW, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15KTS GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS HAVE SWUNG TO THE SOUTH, WITH THE
CENTRAL GULF BUOY REPORTING AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE UP TO 6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING SE WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE GULF. AS THE FRONT TRACKS
INLAND FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH SPEEDS LIKE THAT LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE WATERS: WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM LIGHT WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, EXCEPTION BEING NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL WITH ELDRED ROCK SPORTING 21 KT SUSTAINED AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ICY STRAIT TRANSITIONING
EASTERLY THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF AND APPROACHES
THE PANHANDLE. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL REMAIN, WITH MIST AND FOG LIKELY TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ONCE MORE THURSDAY IN THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ652-672.
UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...STJ
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