823
FXAK67 PAJK 262341
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
341 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHORT TERM
THE FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OVER THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY HAS FINALLY BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD AND OTHERWISE
DETERIORATE AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE IN FAA
WEBCAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A STRAY SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE AN INCOMING FRONT DASHES
ANY HOPES OF EXTENDED SUNSHINE FOR THE AREA. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO REPRIEVE FROM THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AMID MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THAT
WILL GET ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO
20 KT ALONG THE FRONT AND RAISE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN MODEST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING FURTHER ENHANCED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR
MORE ON THIS, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A COLD PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
LOW WILL NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL EVEN
BE THE EASTERN ANCHOR FOR A POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK THAT MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE BERING SEA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THAT
MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLE IS THE CONTINUATION OF COOL, DAMP, AND
CLOUDY WEATHER AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS ONSHORE
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH (MAINLY OVER THIS COMING
WEEKEND).
AS FOR THE WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE FRONT AND FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY (FIRST FRONT IS FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ON SATURDAY AND
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY). OF THESE FEATURES, IT IS
THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY THAT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE
STRONGEST. ALSO IT HAS A TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STARTED PUTTING IN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS (25KT) FOR THE SOUTHERN
NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. INCREASED WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR ANY
ABNORMALLY STRONG WINDS OR REALLY WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE MID
AND EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT
ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PROVIDE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MORE FRONTS EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD BUT TIMING IS STILL VARIABLE.
AVIATION
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING THE BREAK PERIOD IN FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HAVING SOME INCREASES TO VFR,
PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME
DROPS TO MVFR AS CIGS FALL TO 2000 TO 3000 FT AS SOME SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. BY TONIGHT, THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LOCATIONS AROUND
08Z TO 12Z FROM WRANGELL UP THROUGH ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN COASTLINE WILL NOT SEE MUCH
OF A BREAK IF ANYTHING IN FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING, STAYING MOSTLY IN MVFR WITH SOME DROPS TO IFR
FOLLOWING SOME CIGS DROPPING TO UNDER 1000 FT AND VIS BETWEEN 2
AND 4SM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
INCLUDING HAINES, SKAGWAY, AND YAKUTAT WILL STAY VFR THE LONGEST
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME CHANCES TO DROP TO MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS,
BEFORE THE FRONT IMPACTS THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND DROPS CIGS
TO 2500 FT. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS REGARDING WIND OR LLWS GOING
INTO TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL EXPECTING
LIGHTER 5-10 KT WINDS EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS INCREASING OUT
OF THE ESE UP TO 20 KT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS
OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE CENTRAL GULF BUOY REPORTS ESE WIND AT 12 KT
GUSTING TO 16 KT. AS THE FRONT SWINGS INLAND AND NORTHWARD
FRIDAY, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
ANOTHER SHIFT EASTWARD AND INCREASE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FEATURE
MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE INNER CHANNELS THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE CLARENCE STRAIT WITH SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT
REPORTED NEAR LINCOLN ROCK LIGHTHOUSE AND CROSS SOUND WITH
EASTERLY WINDS FROM 10 - 15 KT. FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AS THE
INCOMING FRONT SWINGS NORTHWARD, WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL INCREASE, TO UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WIND ARE LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF DIXON ENTRANCE
AND CLARENCE STRAIT SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE CHILKAT RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS COULD SEE THE RIVER BRIEFLY FALL BELOW MINOR STAGE
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT WILL THEN REBOUND, BEFORE GRADUALLY
FALLING OUT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...STJ
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