996
FXAK67 PAJK 270556 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
955 PM AKDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHORT TERM
AS OF 330PM THURSDAY. THE FRONT THAT HAD STALLED OVER
THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY HAS FINALLY BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD AND
OTHERWISE DETERIORATE AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE IN
FAA WEBCAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. A STRAY SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE AN INCOMING FRONT DASHES
ANY HOPES OF EXTENDED SUNSHINE FOR THE AREA. FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE TO NO REPRIEVE FROM THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AMID MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THAT
WILL GET ENHANCED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO
20 KT ALONG THE FRONT AND RAISE WINDS UP TO 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF
THE INNER CHANNELS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. 24 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS REMAIN MODEST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FROM
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
SURFACE FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING FURTHER ENHANCED WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR
MORE ON THIS, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A COLD PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
LOW WILL NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL EVEN
BE THE EASTERN ANCHOR FOR A POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK THAT MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE BERING SEA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THAT
MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLE IS THE CONTINUATION OF COOL, DAMP, AND
CLOUDY WEATHER AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS ONSHORE
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH (MAINLY OVER THIS COMING
WEEKEND).
AS FOR THE WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE FRONT AND FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY (FIRST FRONT IS FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ON SATURDAY AND
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY). OF THESE FEATURES, IT IS
THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY THAT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE
STRONGEST. ALSO IT HAS A TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STARTED PUTTING IN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS (25KT) FOR THE SOUTHERN
NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. INCREASED WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR ANY
ABNORMALLY STRONG WINDS OR REALLY WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE MID
AND EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT
ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PROVIDE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MORE FRONTS EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD BUT TIMING IS STILL VARIABLE.
AVIATION
/06Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY/ A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
STEADY RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS THAT PERIODICALLY LOWER TO IFR CIGS.
MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE HAS HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE STARTING
TO FILL BACK IN WITH SOME VCSH STARTING TO SHOW UP AS THE TROUGH
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THE NORTH TO SEE THE
STEADY RAIN OUT OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT, BUT SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL TOUGHS
THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL EVENTUALLY
GET UP TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. TONIGHT, SOME LOCATIONS
WILL SEE WINDS BACK OUT OF THE E-NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, THEN WILL
SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. STRONGEST SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE KETCHIKAN AREA, INCREASING TO 15KT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT NOT QUITE HITTING
LLWS CRITERIA.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS INCREASING OUT
OF THE ESE UP TO 20 KT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. AS OF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE CENTRAL GULF BUOY REPORTS ESE WIND AT 12 KT
GUSTING TO 16 KT. AS THE FRONT SWINGS INLAND AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY,
EXPECT SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH ANOTHER
SHIFT EASTWARD AND INCREASE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVES INTO
THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE INNER CHANNELS THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE CLARENCE STRAIT WITH SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT
REPORTED NEAR LINCOLN ROCK LIGHTHOUSE AND CROSS SOUND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS FROM 10 - 15 KT. FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AS THE INCOMING
FRONT SWINGS NORTHWARD, WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WILL
INCREASE, TO UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WAVES OF WIND ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.
STRONGEST WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF DIXON ENTRANCE
AND CLARENCE STRAIT SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ELEVATED AND SNOWMELT CONTINUES FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE CHILKAT RIVER IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 4PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS COULD SEE THE RIVER BRIEFLY FALL BELOW MINOR STAGE
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT WILL THEN REBOUND, BEFORE GRADUALLY
FALLING OUT OF MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...STJ
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