260
FXAK67 PAJK 271904
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1104 AM AKDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST FOR TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A PASSING FRONT TO
BRING MORE RAIN AND SOME INCREASED WINDS TO THE MARINE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES:
-PASSING FRONT TO KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PANHANDLE.
-WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN MARINE
AREAS, AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO THOSE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
DETAILS:
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF IS SWINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND
INCREASED WIND. 24-HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS AREN'T TOO IMPRESSIVE, AT
AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS UP TO 1 INCH.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH YOUR AREA. BUT WITH THE PARENT LOW SO FAR FROM THE
PANHANDLE, THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WON'T BE TOO BAD, WITH LAND
AREAS SEEING BRIEF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. MARINE DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
LONG TERM...THE MID AND EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FEATURE A COLD PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
LOW WILL NOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL EVEN
BE THE EASTERN ANCHOR FOR A POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK THAT MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE BERING SEA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT THAT
MEANS FOR THE PANHANDLE IS THE CONTINUATION OF COOL, DAMP, AND
CLOUDY WEATHER AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW FAVORS ONSHORE
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH (MAINLY OVER THIS COMING
WEEKEND).
AS FOR THE WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE FRONT AND FOLLOWING
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY (FIRST FRONT IS FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ON SATURDAY AND
A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES IN ON MONDAY). OF THESE FEATURES, IT IS
THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY THAT IS NOW LOOKING TO BE THE
STRONGEST. ALSO IT HAS A TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STARTED PUTTING IN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR MIN SMALL CRAFT WINDS (25KT) FOR THE SOUTHERN
NEAR COASTAL WATERS AND CLARENCE STRAIT MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. INCREASED WINDS IN
THESE AREAS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR ANY
ABNORMALLY STRONG WINDS OR REALLY WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE MID
AND EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PERSISTENT
ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID AND LATE WEEK
PERIOD WITH THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO PROVIDE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MORE FRONTS EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD BUT TIMING IS STILL VARIABLE.
AVIATION.../18Z FRIDAY TO 18Z SATURDAY/...INCOMING FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE IS
BRINGING MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY DUE TO CEILINGS) FROM
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR, BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THESE LOW CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY (WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS LATE TONIGHT) AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. FOR THE
EXTREME NORTH (SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND YAKUTAT), THOSE AREAS WILL SEE
LESS RAIN AND BETTER CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE VFR CONDITIONS MORE
LIKELY AT SKAGWAY AND YAKUTAT. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN AT
THAT TIME.
MARINE...
OUTER WATERS: OUTER WATERS WILL SEE WINDS OUT OF THE ESE UP TO 20
KT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS THIS FRONT SWINGS INLAND AND
NORTHWARD FRIDAY, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH ANOTHER SHIFT EASTWARD AND INCREASE AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE FEATURE MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: AS THIS INCOMING FRONT SWINGS NORTHWARD, WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE TO UPWARDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF WIND ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRONGEST WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AREA OF DIXON ENTRANCE AND CLARENCE STRAIT SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE CHILKAT RIVER HAS BEEN
CANCELLED AS WATER LEVELS THIS MORNING DID NOT QUITE MAKE MINOR
FLOOD STAGE DURING ITS DIURNAL PEAK TODAY. WITH COOLER WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MELT WATER INPUT IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED
WITH NO NEW FLOODING EXPECTED.
FOR OTHER AREAS AROUND SE AK, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. TODAY'S 24
HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES WITH HIGH-END FORECASTS (THE 90TH PERCENTILE) NEAR 1 INCH.
RAIN AMOUNTS LIKE THIS ARE NOT USUALLY A BIG CONCERN BUT RIVERS
ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GJS/STJ
HYDROLOGY...GJS/STJ/EAL
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