924
FXAK67 PAJK 280608
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1008 PM AKDT FRI JUN 27 2025
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z TAF AND
UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM SECTION.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 254 PM AKDT
SHORT TERM...FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THE SHORT TERM
AS THE FRONT EXTENDING OVER THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO TREK
NORTHWARD, BRINGING SLIGHT INCREASES TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS CONTINUING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. A
MESOLOW THAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BRING SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP TO THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, EVEN THESE
ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES RUNNING THEIR COURSE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE PANHANDLE WITH
CONTINUED ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORT WAVE
FEATURE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY, WITH ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN SURFACE WINDS IN
THE SE GULF AND DIXON ENTRANCE INTO CLARENCE STRAIT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT THEIR STRONGEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OUT OF THE SE UP TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS
NORTHWARD, WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 8 FT.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 24 HOUR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.5 INCHES FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR IN
CREASING TO NEAR 1 INCH FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. JUST AS
WITH FRIDAY, SOME RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXPECTED BUT
THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON WHAT TO EXPECT AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM...PERSISTENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD
OVERCAST CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE
PANHANDLE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM, AT LEAST THROUGH JULY
3RD, AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE ENTIRETY OF
ALASKA. MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE STATE HAS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. THAT BEING SAID,
SMALLER DETAILS, THAT BEING THE VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING
AROUND THE 500 MB LOW, HAVE MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. WHAT IS KNOWN INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BROADLY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH INDIVIDUAL
DETAILS STILL BEING WORKED OUT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST, WITH SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING BETWEEN 850-500 MB AND DRIER AIR. WHILE NOT TO THE LEVELS
WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED, THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
BREAK IN RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, SUCH AS
GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY. THEN GUIDANCE QUICKLY
DIVERGES ON THE HANDLING OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH, A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE
AND HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT, THIS WAVE COULD BE FOCUSED ANYWHERE BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS. CLUSTER
GUIDANCE WITHIN THE LREF HAS INDICATED THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER, AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
INCLUDED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BUT UNDERSTAND THAT THESE
NUMBERS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE LOOK TO BE AT MINIMUM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN RATES, PRIMARILY FOCUSED AT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
BEYOND MONDAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS FURTHER, BUT WHAT CAN BE SAID IS
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW LINGERING OVER THE GULF HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE NO EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THIS
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT DOES LOOK TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE AND NBM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN. BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE TRYING TO SHOW SIGNS OF HOPE FOR MID WEEK WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW AT THE
TIME OF WRITING AND LEANED MORE ON THE CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR
THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION.../06Z SATURDAY TO 06Z SUNDAY/ FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE
TO TRACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION. SOME OF THESE HAVE BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS. SATELLITE AND MODELS ARE SHOWING A GAP IN RAIN
BETWEEN FRONTAL BANDS STARTING RECENTLY OVER THE SOUTH, WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN CEILINGS LOWERING TO 500FT, HOWEVER THE NEXT FRONTAL
BAND MOVES INTO KLAWOCK AROUND 14Z. AS THE RAIN SPREADS IN,
CONDITIONS LOWER AND RATES MAY BECOME MODERATE. LLWS PICKS UP
ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM 17Z ONWARD WITH SE WINDS OF 30-40KT AT 2KFT
LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TO REACH THE JUNEAU AREA, ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL BE AROUND ALL DAY.
MARINE...OUTER WATERS WILL SEE WINDS OUT OF THE ESE 15 - 20
KT AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, BUOYS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF ARE REPORTING 5 FT SEAS WITH PERIOD
RANGING FROM 6 TO 8 SECONDS. A MESOLOW THAT FORMED ALONG THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME ERRATIC WINDS IN THE AREA OF CAPE
EDGECUMBE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE FRONT SWINGS INLAND
AND NORTHWARD FRIDAY EVENING, EXPECT SOUTHERLY GULF WINDS TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH ANOTHER SHIFT EASTWARD AND INCREASE AS
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FEATURE MOVES INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
INSIDE WATERS: THE INCOMING FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWINGING
NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS INCREASING TO UPWARDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF WIND
ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TO TRANSIT THE EASTERN GULF ON
SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF DIXON
ENTRANCE AND CLARENCE STRAIT SATURDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ036-641-642-661>663.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....NC/SF
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...STJ
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