430
FXAK67 PAJK 281241
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
441 AM AKDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ZIPPING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE.
KEY MESSAGES:
-MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING
IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
-THESE HEAVIER RAIN RATES WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
-ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATER
THIS MORNING AND TRACK NORTH - LAND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND MARINE WINDS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS.
DETAILS: 500MB BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL
SWING A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL GIVE THE AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN RATES AND ELEVATED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM. SO ONCE THE LOW
MOVES AWAY FROM YOUR AREA, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AND RAIN
RATES WILL LIGHTEN.
FOR THE 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, YAKUTAT AND THE NE GULF COAST
LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH GETTING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE IS LOOKING AT 24 HOUR RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND
HALF TO ONE INCH WITH HIGH-END ESTIMATES (90TH PERCENTILE) UPWARDS
OF 1.50 INCHES. ESTIMATED RAIN RATES, WHETHER YOU LOOK AT THE
6HR, 12HR, OR 24HR AMOUNTS, ARE AROUND THE 2 TO 5 YEAR RETURN
INTERVAL. SO RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD, ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD WITH IT. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND PEAK TO AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTH. THE INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS WILL START IN THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH, REACHING THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DECREASING SPEEDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
PERSISTENT COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CLOUD COVER, AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO
CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A COLD
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM,
AT LEAST THROUGH JULY 3RD, AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK OVER THE ENTIRETY OF ALASKA. MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE MOTIONS
IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE HAS GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE. THAT BEING SAID, SMALLER DETAILS, THAT BEING THE
VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE 500 MB LOW, HAVE
MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. WHAT IS
KNOWN INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BROADLY REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST, WITH INDIVIDUAL DETAILS STILL BEING WORKED OUT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST, WITH SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING BETWEEN 850-500 MB AND DRIER AIR. WHILE NOT TO THE LEVELS
WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED, THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
BREAK IN RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, SUCH AS
GUSTAVUS, JUNEAU, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY. THEN GUIDANCE QUICKLY
DIVERGES ON THE HANDLING OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH, A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE
AND HIGHER SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT, THIS WAVE COULD BE FOCUSED ANYWHERE BETWEEN
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS. CLUSTER
GUIDANCE WITHIN THE LREF HAS INDICATED THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER, AIMED AT THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
INCLUDED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BUT UNDERSTAND THAT THESE
NUMBERS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE LOOK TO BE AT MINIMUM A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN RATES, PRIMARILY FOCUSED AT THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
BEYOND MONDAY, CONFIDENCE DROPS FURTHER, BUT WHAT CAN BE SAID IS
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW LINGERING OVER THE GULF HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE NO EARLY INDICATIONS THAT THIS
RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT DOES LOOK TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE AND NBM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN. BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE TRYING TO SHOW SIGNS OF HOPE FOR MID WEEK WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW AT THE
TIME OF WRITING AND LEANED MORE ON THE CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR
THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF WILL KEEP LOWERED FLYING CONDITIONS IN SE AK AS WELL AS SOME
LLWS.
THE RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LLWS SHOULD START
SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD. LLWS WILL FADE OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IN THE
GULF WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE
FOCUSED ON THE INCOMING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. WIND ON THE NORTH AND
EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO
25 KTS WHILE THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE WILL SEE WINDS FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE LOW WILL FADE OUT TONIGHT
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE. GENERAL SOUTH WINDS WILL BE FOUND
IN THE GULF TOMORROW AT AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
INSIDE WATERS: AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH, SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS
UPWARDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SPREAD NORTH IN THE INNER CHANNELS.
THE WIND SPEED INCREASE COULD COME QUICKLY AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CLARENCE STRAIT WHERE WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING WITH
DECREASING WIND SPEEDS LATER THIS EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-036-641-642-644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....NC/SF
AVIATION...GJS
MARINE...GJS
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