179
FXAK67 PAJK 282214
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
214 PM AKDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND WIND TO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST WINDS
OBSERVED (25 TO 30 KT) WERE ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
GULF OFF PRINCE OF WALES AND BARANOF ISLANDS AND IN CLARENCE
STRAIT (LINCOLN ROCK REPORTED 34KT SUSTAINED AROUND 11 AM).
MODERATE RAINFALL RATES HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED TODAY MAINLY
AROUND KETCHIKAN (HOURLY RAIN RATES OF AROUND 0.16 INCHES PER HOUR
AT TIMES).
THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD DEALS WITH WHERE THE
CURRENT SHORTWAVE/LOW GOES TONIGHT. TRACK IS STILL THE SAME WITH
THE MAIN LOW HEADING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CHANGES HERE WERE TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTH. HIGHER WINDS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER
CHANNELS ARE NOW OCCURRING MORE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
THEN MIDDAY TOMORROW THOUGH THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ARE
MOSTLY UNCHANGED (20 KT FOR MOST AREAS). THE TIMING OF THE RAIN
HAS ALSO SEEN A SIMILAR SPEED UP BUT AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING QUIETER THOUGH STILL DAMP AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND A NEW SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM AT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY ON AND OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
AND SOME WIND COMES IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS THAT NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FAR SE GULF. THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVES FROM
EARLIER THIS WEEKEND SO MAX WINDS OF 15 KT EXPECTED WITH SOME
LIGHTER RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER, AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM, AT LEAST THROUGH JULY 3RD, AS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE ENTIRETY OF ALASKA. MUCH OF THE
LARGE SCALE MOTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE HAS GOOD
CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. THAT BEING SAID, SMALLER DETAILS, THAT
BEING THE VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE 500 MB LOW,
HAVE MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, STRENGTH, AND PLACEMENT. WHAT
IS KNOWN INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BROADLY REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST, WITH INDIVIDUAL DETAILS STILL BEING WORKED OUT.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST, WITH SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING BETWEEN 850-500 MB AND DRIER AIR. WHILE NOT TO THE LEVELS
WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED, THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A
BREAK IN RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, INCLUDING HAINES AND
SKAGWAY. THEN, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE UNCOMFORTABLY DIVERGENT,
WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SETTLING ON A SLIGHTLY DEEPENING
LOW MOVING IN AND BECOMING STATIONARY APPROXIMATELY 30-50 NM OFF THE
COAST OF SITKA. THAT BEING SAID, GIVEN THE STRONGER SOLUTION, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE IF THE LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF SITKA AND THEN
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, LOOKS HAVE TWO WRAPS,
WITH THE INITIAL AS A WARM OCCLUSION WITH STRATIFORM RAIN, AND THE
SECOND CONVECTIVE. DETERMINISTIC CAMS THAT HAVE THIS SOLUTION SHOW A
LINE OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT, LAPSE
RATES EXCEEDING 7 DEGREES C BETWEEN 850-500MB, AND A DRY INTRUSION
FROM 700-500MB. WHILE CERTAINLY NOT AS INTENSE AS THE MIDDLE OF
JUNE, GUSTY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS,
PARTICULARLY IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
SOMEWHAT EARLY IN THE MORNING, WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASED THETAE FROM ANY POTENTIAL SOLAR
RADIATION. UNFORTUNATELY FOR STORM LOVERS, CLUSTERS PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE EPS, AND RECENT RUNS OF CAMS LEAN TOWARDS A LESS
DEVELOPED SYSTEM, MOSTLY CUT OFF FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. THESE SOLUTIONS MOSTLY IMPACT CLARENCE STRAIT WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO DIXON
ENTRANCE, AND MOSTLY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS. ONE
CONSISTENT FEATURE OF EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH, IS THE TENDENCY FOR
INCREASED RAIN RATES IN NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KUIU
ISLAND, AND KUPREANOF ISLAND NEAR PETERSBURG. WHILE NOT EXPECTING
ANY FLOODING AT THIS POINT FOR PLACES LIKE FALLS CREEK, DROPS IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST,
WENT DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE WIND FIELD EXCEPT CHANGE MANY
AREAS IN THE INNER CHANNELS TO NORTHERLY, AS PLACES IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BE CONSISTENTLY NORTHERLY WITH EITHER
SOLUTION.
BEYOND TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW, BUT WHAT CAN BE SAID
IS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW LINGERING OVER THE GULF
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE ARE NO EARLY INDICATIONS THAT
THIS RAIN WILL BE HEAVY, IT DOES LOOK TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
ENSEMBLE AND NBM GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL AROUND WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN. BUT THERE IS SOME
GUIDANCE TRYING TO SHOW SIGNS OF HOPE FOR MID WEEK WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IN THIS SOLUTION IS LOW AT THE
TIME OF WRITING AND LEANED MORE ON THE CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR THE
TIME BEING.
AVIATION
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF JUST EAST OF
PASI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NNW THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME
OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THAT
ARE PRODUCING SOME MVRF TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES FROM MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AND SOME INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS PRODUCING SOME LLWS
BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA NEAR MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING
FRONT MOVES NORTH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME LLWS RANGING FROM 25 TO
35KT NEAR 1.5KFT TO 2.0KFT LEVEL IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL DECREASE SHORTLY AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. OVERNIGHT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST SOUNDINGS IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS MIGHT DEVELOP WITH LIMITATIONS IN VIS AND
CIGS. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING VFR CONDITIONS BY MID DAY ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF HAS
PRODUCED SE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OFF OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND
BARANOF ISLAND TODAY WHICH HAS PRODUCED WIND WAVES OF AROUND 8 FT
IN THAT AREA. THERE IS A SMALL SW SWELL OF UP TO 3 FT WITH 9 SEC
PERIOD PRESENT AS WELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY. THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT
WEAKENING AS IT GOES. MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS OF WIND AND SEAS 6 FT
OR LESS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH THE NEW
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SE GULF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF PERIODS OF 20 KT WINDS OFF OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT IT SHOULD
ONLY AFFECT SMALL AREAS.
INSIDE: SOUTHERLY PUSH OF STRONGER WINDS WILL BE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTH MOVES NORTH. HIGHEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CURRENTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT IT SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WITH 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS A
SPEED UP IN TIMING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
HIGHER WINDS NOW OCCURRING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING RATHER THEN
MIDDAY SUNDAY. INNER CHANNEL WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MOSTLY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTION IS
CLARENCE STRAIT AND AROUND CAPE DECISION WHERE WINDS OF AROUND 15
KT OR POSSIBLY 20 KT COULD BE BLOWING LATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
THE NEW SHORT WAVE MOVING IN.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ035-641>644-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC/SEF
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...EAL
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