823
FXAK67 PAJK 301436
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
636 AM AKDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ALTHOUGH THERE'S STILL SOME
RELATIVE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXACT PATH OF MONDAY'S WEATHER
SYSTEM, WHETHER THE SURFACE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE NEAR SITKA OR
MOVE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING, THE OVERALL OUTCOME REMAINS THE
SAME. A WARM FRONT BRINGING PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY, DELIVERING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UP TO AROUND PETERSBURG.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE LIFT DUE TO DIVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE WAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH. COMBINED
WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR 850 MB, THIS WILL INCREASE
UPWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT
MOUNTAIN-INDUCED SHEARING IN THE INNER CHANNELS WILL KEEP LOW-
LEVEL ADVECTION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
AS A RESULT, AREAS LIKE KETCHIKAN, METLAKATLA, AND SOUTHERN PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND MAY SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 0.15 TO 0.20 INCHES PER
HOUR. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.
EARLIER CONCERNS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT, DUE
TO DRY AIR AT 700-500 MB, HAVE EASED. COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS
TO BE SEPARATE FROM THE DRY AIR, WHICH REDUCES LAPSE RATES AND
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY (CAPE). AS A RESULT, GUSTY WINDS ARE NO
LONGER ANTICIPATED, SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISMS
IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
CONTINUED COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER, AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK AND LESS
RAIN COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, INCLUDING
THE FOURTH OF JULY. A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH JULY 3RD, BEFORE BEING EJECTED E INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA,
ONLY TO BE SWIFTLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
IN FROM THE W. WHILE THERE IS FAIRLY SOLID CONFIDENCE IN THE
LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN OVER THE STATE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AS A RESULT, THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR SMALLER SCALE DETAILS. IN
PARTICULAR, THE VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING AROUND THE
FIRST 500 MB LOW, HAVE MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING, STRENGTH,
AND PLACEMENT, AS DOES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK RIDGE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TO TRY AND BUILD IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
WHAT IS KNOWN INTO NEXT WEEK IS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BROADLY
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR FEWER SHOWERS
JULY 3RD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL EXIST.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM. A LOW WILL
STALL AND DECAY INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE AK
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE REMNANTS MEANDER INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND DISINTEGRATE ENTIRELY ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS
TIME, EXPECT WAVE OF SHOWERS TO ROTATE AROUND THE DECAYING LOW,
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AND DELIVERING ROUNDS OF RAINFALL TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE
DIMINISHING AS THE REMNANT TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
BEYOND TUESDAY, CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DIMINISHES, BUT WHAT CAN BE
SAID IS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER AND CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE, ALBEIT DIMINISHED FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY. ALONGSIDE THE EASTERLY WAVE, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT IN THE LULL
BETWEEN THE FORMER UPPER LEVEL LOW (WHICH WILL BE EJECTED
WEDNESDAY), AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW,
CONFIDENCE HAS BEGUN TO GROW THAT WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN. SHOULD THIS RIDGING BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG,
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, AND SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS (AND MARGINALLY WARMER WEATHER) ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
CONTINUING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NEAR JUNEAU THIS MORNING,
BETWEEN HIGH- END MVFR AND VFR, WITH AREAS THAT ARE MVFR EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
HAS BEEN SEEING MUCH MORE MIXED CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH
PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH AND PATCHY FOG AFFECTING SOME AREAS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ALREADY THIS MORNING THERE
ARE SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, INCLUDING GUSTAVUS,
PETERSBURG, AND WRANGELL, THAT ARE SEEING SOME 200 TO 400 FT CIGS
AND 1 TO 2SM VIS DUE TO SOME FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS. THESE AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DROPS FROM MVFR DOWN TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR
THIS MORNING AND POTENTIALLY INTO LATE TONIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
THESE LIFR DROPS INTO THE VERY END OF THE TAFS FOR PETERSBURG AND
WRANGELL BUT IT REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND FOG
TO DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LOW- END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 600 FT AND 1500 FT, AS RAIN CONTINUES
TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME CHANCES FOR THE
KETCHIKAN AREA TO SEE SOME 2SM VIS AND 300FT CIGS TONIGHT. NEAR
ANNETTE ISLAND UP THROUGH KETCHIKAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
SOME LLWS OF 30KT AT 2000FT AT AROUND 18Z TO 22Z (AROUND MIDDAY)
TODAY, AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE AND SOME 30 TO 40 KT
WINDS AT 925MB MOVE INTO THE AREA ABOVE KETCHIKAN BOROUGH AND OVER
CLARENCE STRAIT. THIS LOW MOVING ONSHORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
UP THE WINDS MUCH ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF TAF
SITES EXPECTING 5 TO 10 KT WINDS; CALM WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, TO UP TO 10 KTS FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND UP NEAR
SKAGWAY AND HAINES.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
AND WEAKEN NEAR BARANOF ISLAND INTO MONDAY. MONDAY MORNING, WINDS
OVER THE OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT SHARPLY TO THE NORTH,
BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES OUT OF CROSS SOUND AND SOUTH OF
BARANOF ISLAND. AS THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BARANOF ISLAND, CONDITIONS
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SHORT FETCH,
RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS, AND MINIMAL SWELL, WE DON'T EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET.
INSIDE WATERS:
SIMILAR TO THE OUTER COAST, NORTH-SOUTH FACING INNER CHANNELS WILL
SEE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, CLARENCE STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND BEYOND. EXPECT A GRADUAL
NORTH-TO-SOUTH WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. IT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL &
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST 24-HR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED
FOR KETCHIKAN BOROUGH AND ANNETTE ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
DECREASING IN AMOUNTS AS YOU MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD.
STREAM RISES ARE EXPECTED, PRIMARILY FOR STREAMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THEY ARE GETTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
RATES/AMOUNTS THIS MORNING, BUT NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THIS SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY QUICK-MOVING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...JLC
HYDROLOGY...JLC
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