513
FXAK67 PAJK 261814
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2025
UPDATE...TO ADD THE 18Z AVIATION SECTION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
A NEAR 1000MB LOW HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRAVEL SOUTH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED NEAR-GALE FORCE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CHANCE TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS
IN NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS FRONT IS ALREADY OCCLUDED AND IS
WRAPPING ITSELF AROUND THE LOW CENTER, INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN. YAKUTAT IS ALREADY STARTING TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING, BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH. OUTER COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALSO
HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN INTO SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY JUST OFFSHORE BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY BRUSH UP AGAINST THE
COAST. AS A RESULT, THESE AREAS WILL SEE AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH A CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT MORE ON
SUNDAY. INNER CHANNEL COMMUNITIES, HOWEVER, LOOK TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INNER
CHANNEL WINDS MAY INCREASE UP TO MODERATE BREEZES (11 TO 16 KTS)
AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF, PEAKING
SATURDAY EVENING. CLARENCE STRAIT WILL START TO SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICK UP AROUND THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT WON'T REACH THEIR PEAK
OF FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. CLEARER
SKIES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LEAD TO WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS
SATURDAY. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING AS HIGH. A LOW MARINE
LAYER HAS PUSHED INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OUTER COAST THIS MORNING, LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THIS LOW OVERCAST DECK SHOULD START TO LIFT
AS MORNING PEAKS AND OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. FOG HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED IN PETERSBURG, WRANGELL, AND DOWN FREDERICK SOUND,
THOUGH THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SUN COMING UP.
LONG TERM
MAIN THREATS:
-SOUTHEASTERLY 22 TO 27 KNOTS OF WIND FOR COASTAL AREAS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
-SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 21 KNOTS FOR CLARENCE STRAIT.
-EAST-SOUTHEAST 12 TO 17 KNOTS FOR FREDERICK SOUND, PERIL STRAIT,
AND ICY STRAIT.
CHANGES:
-REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FOR INNER CHANNELS AND DIXON LATER SUNDAY.
-REDUCED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAJORITY OF PANHANDLE.
SUNDAY A BROAD CLOSED OFF LOW WILL POSITION ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL
GULF, WHERE IT WILL STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES (12 TO 21 KNOTS) ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH STRONG BREEZES (22 TO 27) KNOTS ALONG OUR COAST.
MAJOR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHIFT RAIN SOUTH AND OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE, WITH THE BAND OF MODERATE RAIN NOW FORECASTING ALONG
OUR COASTAL WATERS. ONE IMPACT FROM THIS LOW IS THAT IT WILL BLOCK
FURTHER LARGE SYSTEMS FROM ENTERING THE GULF, WITH SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW AND INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE
THEME. FAR UPSTREAM, REMNANTS OF TROPICAL TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN THE
WEST PACIFIC WILL SHIFT NORTH, WITH PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. CONSEQUENCES
OF THIS WILL BE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG PERIOD WSW SWELL TO IMPACT OUR COAST BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY/
MOST OF THE PANHANDLE IS STARTING
OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS MID-MORNING. AIRPORTS ALONG THE
OUTER COAST ARE STILL DEALING WITH A BIT OF A MARINE LAYER THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO THE COAST THAT IS GIVING AS LOW AS MVFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS AND BKN TO SCT CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME MORE FG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT & INTO THE
MORNING FOR THE PAPG, PAWG, & PAKW AREAS. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE LOOKS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAS A FRONTAL BAND THAT HAS FORMED
AROUND THE LOW THAT WILL IS INCREASING THE WINDS NEAR THE OUTER
COAST. IT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST, WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF CHICHAGOF & BARANOF ISLANDS, &
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND. PAYA HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEING SOME LIGHT
RAIN THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY BENIGN SFC WIND & LLWS VALUES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
PERIOD. THE ONLY THING WORTHY OF NOTING IS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVE
LESS CLOUD COVER & MORE WARMING WILL SEE SEA BREEZES, TODAY. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA WILL BE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE,
INCLUDING PAGY, WHICH WILL SEE THE STRONGEST & MOST GUSTY SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
INSIDE WATERS: N/S CHANNELS ARE SEEING SOUTHERLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES (4 TO 10 KTS) THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THE OUTER COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KTS). CLARENCE STRAIT WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) AND SEAS
BUILDING UP TO 4 FT NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE. IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.
OUTSIDE WATERS: ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN TO INCREASE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEFORE SPREADING TO THE ENTIRE OUTER
COAST. SUSTAINED NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS (28 TO 33 KTS) WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS (34 TO 40 KTS) ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, PEAKING
MIDDAY SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NEARSHORE WATERS
BEYOND 15 NM FROM THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE ST ELIAS. WAVE
HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FT WILL INCREASE TO UP TO 12 FT IN THE OPEN GULF
WATERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. CURRENTLY, PREDOMINANT WAVE PERIOD
IS AROUND 7 SECONDS WITH A W SWELL OF 2 FT OR LESS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...ZTK
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